Governor’s race is, as in 2004, just about tied

Chris Gregoire and Dino Rossi. (Photo illustration by The Columbian)

This year’s governor’s race is already one for the record books.

And Clark County, with 212,418 registered voters and counting, could go either way.

The high-stakes contest between Democratic Gov. Chris Gregoire and Republican opponent Dino Rossi has broken all state fundraising records. By late last week, more than $30 million had been raised in direct campaign contributions and independent expenditures on the candidates’ behalf.

An Oct. 2 telephone poll of 700 likely voters by Rasmussen Reports showed the two locked in a 48 percent-48 percent dead heat, with nearly identical numbers viewing each favorably or unfavorably.

National pundits have tagged the race as the one to watch this year.

If the rematch has the feel of a grudge match, that’s not surprising. Gregoire won the 2004 contest by just 133 votes after three recounts and a court ruling. It was the closest governor’s race in Washington history.

Rossi carried Clark County four years ago with 52.75 percent of the vote to 44.71 percent for Gregoire. He held a slight lead here after the August top two primary.

“No governor understands better than I do that every vote counts,” Gregoire joked at a Vancouver appearance last week.

Rossi, a former state senator who returned to his commercial real estate business after the 2004 campaign, has his own rueful version of that sentiment.

“Everyone in this room knows 129 people,” he says with a smile in his standard get-out-the-vote speech. The number refers to the margin by which he trailed Gregoire in the last recount, before the court awarded Gregoire four additional votes and the election.

They’ve campaigned hard here. Both candidates held campaign kick-off events in Vancouver. Gregoire’s April event was a raucous affair at a union hall; she arrived on a biodiesel-fueled bus. Rossi’s party was in a crowded hall at the Red Lion Hotel at the Quay.

Gregoire has been back several times to address conventions of labor groups, firefighters and veterans, using her labor connections and husband “First Mike” Gregoire’s record as a Vietnam veteran to make common cause.

“There are some in the Legislature who say you ask for too much,” she told firefighters. “I beg to differ. When you put your lives on the line, the laws and the pensions are what you need and deserve.”

She held a town hall Monday at Clark College after negotiations between the campaigns over scheduling a debate in Vancouver broke down.

Rossi spoke to Clark County Realtors in June, remarking, “Rarely in life do you ever get a second chance at things that are truly important. With the race for governor, Washington gets a second chance.”

Rossi has held several private fundraisers in Clark County. He addressed his biggest donor, the Building Industry Association of Washington, at Skamania Lodge in June, declaring, “People have got a very tangible choice come November.”

Gregoire has courted Clark County throughout her term. Working with a Legislature firmly in Democratic control, she supported funding for a new Clark County satellite campus and new buildings on the Washington State University Vancouver campus. She has backed Vancouver downtown redevelopment. When it was time to sign a landmark climate change bill last year, she did it in Vancouver.

For Rossi, the governor’s record of spending since 2005 has provided a fat target. Gregoire and the Legislature increased spending by $8 billion during three years of budget surpluses. Now, though the state expects to end the fiscal year June 30 with a positive balance, it faces a projected $3.2 billion deficit by 2011, a gap that the next governor will have to figure out how to bridge.

Rossi says he’s been there. As Senate Ways and Means chairman in 2003, he says, he confronted a budget deficit and cut the budget while preserving essential services. He accuses Gregoire of raising taxes, creating a poor business climate and failing to solve the state’s many transportation woes.

He has unveiled a $15 billion plan to tap general fund revenue to pay for projects to reduce traffic congestion. But Democratic legislative leaders say it’s a non-starter.

Gregoire defends her record, noting that most new spending on her watch has gone to support education, and that she had to restore cuts Rossi supported in 2003. She argues that new investments in education, renewable energy and health care are necessary to keep the state’s economy competitive in a global market.

The governor has an edge in cash and in-kind contributions. As of Oct. 16 she had raised $11.28 million to Rossi’s $10.15 million.

But Rossi has an advantage in independent spending by outside organizations on his behalf. As of last week, $5.9 million had been spent by those organizations to defeat Gregoire. Independent organizations have spent $3.4 million to defeat Rossi.

Nearly all that money is going into a blitz of television ads, including a new ad campaign paid for by the Republican Governors’ Association that accuses Gregoire of “losing track” of 1,300 sex offenders.

Each side has accused the other of fundraising improprieties.

The Building Industry Association has poured more than $7 million into the effort to unseat the governor. That includes $4 million reported this month, days before a deadline limiting independent expenditures to $5,000 in the last three weeks before an election.

Gregoire’s campaign has benefited from large donations from labor unions, Indian tribes and wealthy individuals, including $50,000 each from Camas philanthropists David and Patricia Nierenberg. Most of those contributions were filtered through the state Democratic Party.

Kathie Durbin: 360-735-4523 or kathie.durbin@columbian.com.

The candidates on the issues

Gregoire:
A replacement bridge must be built and the federal government should be a full partner in funding it. In the long run, light rail is a better use of tax dollars than bus rapid transit on dedicated traffic lanes. Tolling is an essential part of any bridge funding strategy.

Rossi:
A replacement bridge should be built. Light rail is acceptable, but tolling should be used only as a last resort. Rossi’s transportation plan would dedicate $870 million from the state general fund to help pay for the bridge.

Rossi:
Washington should eliminate its estate tax. Businesses are being forced out of Washington because of high taxes and overregulation, A Rossi administration would not raise taxes and would work to improve the state’s business climate, especially for small businesses.

Gregoire:
The Gregoire administration has held the line on state sales tax, property taxes and business and occupation taxes while approving $900,000 in tax breaks to promote jobs. Gregoire would not support new taxes in a second term: “You don’t tax families when they’re struggling; you don’t tax businesses when you’re depending on them to provide the jobs you need.”

Gregoire:
Washington’s budget woes are largely the result of national trends. More than half the spending increases on her watch have gone to support education. Her administration has taken steps to cut current spending and she will consider tapping the rainy day reserve fund established by voter initiative in 2007.

Rossi:
Under Gregoire, state spending has grown by $8 billion, two and a half times as fast as revenue. A Rossi administration would freeze hiring and discretionary spending and review the budget line-by-line looking for savings to deal with a projected $3.2 billion budget deficit. “We have to right the ship financially before we start doing other things.” Rossi supports a constitutional limit on state spending.

Rossi:
As part of the 2003 budget cuts, Rossi supported eliminating health coverage for 40,000 children he regarded as ineligible for state subsidies. To make health insurance more affordable to middle-class families, he favors reducing regulations and mandates that he says have driven some insurance companies out of the state. Washington should have a health care safety net to take care of low-income and vulnerable citizens.

Gregoire:
Coverage was restored to those 40,000 children and she has increased the rolls by another 32,000. Her goal, adopted as legislation, is to make sure every child in the state is covered by 2010. That includes the children of illegal immigrants and also children in middle-class families, who would pay a premium for coverage. Gregoire opposes repealing state mandates that require insurers to cover such services as early detection of cancer.

Gregoire:
The WASL must be reformed, not abandoned. The state must continue to invest in early childhood education and provide more access to college and vocational education. Teaching will improve as the state provides financial incentives for teachers who achieve national board certification, specialize in math and science, or volunteer to teach in low-performing schools.

Rossi:
The state should replace the Washington Assessment of Student Learning with the nation’s best standardized test. Teachers who succeed in raising student performance should be paid more. The state should change teacher accreditation rules to attract math and science teachers from the private sector.

Rossi:
The state must prevent the early release of violent felons and help law enforcement agencies locate missing registered sex offenders. Overworked community corrections officers need more resources to monitor offenders who have been released into their communities. All sex offenders should be required to register their DNA with the state.

Gregoire:
The number of sex offenders whose whereabouts are unaccounted for has decreased by 16 percent since 2004. Gregoire has signed 25 bills related to tracking and prosecuting sex offenders and has provided more money to local law enforcement agencies to help with their tracking efforts.

Gregoire:
Her administration pushed for landmark climate change legislation that sets strict limits on future greenhouse gas emissions and offers incentives to develop green energy. She also pushed for and got large outlays to begin the cleanup of Hood Canal and Puget Sound.

Rossi:
The state transportation department must replace or repair more than 1,600 salmon-blocking culverts. State parks should be fully funded. The state should eliminate the sales tax on the purchase of hybrid, electric and alternative-fuel vehicles for the next 10 years to encourage consumers to reduce the impact of driving on air quality and climate change.