Second round picks can be pleasant surprises

TUALATIN — As Chad Buchanan discussed the players working out for the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday, the descriptions he gave fit a common storyline.

Some would battle limitations in the NBA, explained the Blazers’ director of college scouting.

Others had one exceptional skill — such as shooting or rebounding — that they would have to ride to success.

They might end up on a summer league roster, but all would likely enter next week’s NBA Draft hoping to be taken in the second round, if they are to be chosen at all.

"Second-round guys, they have one defined skill that translates," Buchanan said after watching Gonzaga’s Jeremy Pargo, Texas’ A.J. Abrams and four other players work out. "And if they get with the right coach, the right team that has that need for that particular skill, they can succeed."

It could produce an unparalleled bargain if Portland can pick out the hidden gems in that group with one of their four second-round selections, just as Utah did with Paul Millsap three years ago, and other teams have with notable names like Michael Redd (43rd pick by Milwaukee) and Gilbert Arenas (31st pick by Golden State).

Sure, the Blazers can plug their holes on the free agency market next month, when they hope to have $7 million in salary cap room to spend on established players.

But if they can find one of those second-round gems, the reward relative to the paycheck could be even greater.

Second-round picks come cheap — earning as little as $500,000 a year — and can be signed to non-guaranteed contracts, making them some of the best potential deals in the league.

Just look at Millsap: The 47th pick in the 2006 draft, who averaged 11.8 points and 8.0 rebounds last season, is slated to make just $798,000 next season.

Spotting those undervalued talents is a gamble, though. And with free agency around the corner, one debate has been constant in the Blazers’ offices: How many chances can they afford to take when every pick reduces roster and salary cap space that can be used on free agents?

"You’re always evaluating free agents vs. picks," Pritchard said. "It’s a high-risk proposition, if you look at the history of second-round picks. You look at the Michael Redds and the Millsaps and the Arenases, it says, well, wow. But for every one of those, there are 50 or 60 that don’t turn out."

Given the Blazers’ position as a rising contender in the Western Conference, widespread speculation has been that Portland may walk out of the draft having used no more than one of its second-round picks on a player who could be invited to training camp — a line of thinking that follows their past draft-day patterns.

Of the eight second-round picks Portland has held in the last three drafts, only Taurean Green and Josh McRoberts were invited to training camp, and neither stayed with the team for more than a year. The other six were traded away during drafts, bringing back future second-round selections.

But if the Blazers plan to follow that pattern again, it has not shown in their preparations.

Second-round prospects have out-numbered first rounders by a better than 3-to-1 margin this summer as the scouting team scours the court for the overlooked talents.

Pargo returned for a second workout on Friday, and more workouts with second-round prospects are scheduled for early next week.

At least one second-round pick in this draft, Buchanan said, is bound to become a surprise success.

"In every draft there’s always going to be diamonds in the rough," he said. "Even though this draft is projected to be a weak draft, I think there’s still going to be a couple guys who are going to help an NBA team."

Now the Blazers must feel out whether the cheap risks of the second round or the expensive certainty of free agency will produce the greatest reward.