Clark County's population growth cools to 24-year low

A limping economy has cooled Clark County's once-sizzling population growth, knocking it down to almost a 25-year low.

The county had 431,200 people as of April 1, according to newly released state estimates. That's only 7,000 more people than the April 2008 estimate, for a growth rate of 1.65 percent.

The last time the county grew at a slower rate was from April 1984 to April 1985, when population gain was only 1.47 percent.

Both the numeric and percentage changes are huge departures from rapid growth during the 1990s, when Clark County's population gain often exceeded 4 percent in a single year.

But they hardly come as a surprise to those who track unemployment, job creation, housing starts and other economic indicators.

Scott Bailey, regional economist for the Washington Employment Security Department, said Clark County housing starts are on track to fall below those recorded in 1982, during the depths of a brutal recession. For that reason, Bailey wouldn't be surprised to see the county's growth rate tumble even lower.

"I've pretty consistently been saying the labor market is going to worsen this year and any kind of recovery is going to be long and slow," he said.

Eric Hovee, a Vancouver consultant with clients in both the public and private sector, also isn't expecting a quick turnaround.

"My own take at this point is I would be surprised if we saw it jump up very much," he said about population growth. "I just think the housing recovery is going to come in fits and starts."

Housing likely won't rebound without job growth, Hovee said, and he suspects "we still have a few rough months to go in unemployment before we turn the corner."

Despite the recent downturn, Clark County is on track to grow faster this decade, on a percentage basis, than every county in Washington, besides Franklin.

Since 2000, Clark County has grown by 24.9 percent, a rapid clip but nowhere near Franklin County's 47.3 percent increase.

People moving here continue to fuel Clark County's growth, accounting for 68 percent of population increase this decade. The remainder is the so-called natural increase, the difference between births and deaths.

In King County, by far Washington's biggest county with 1.9 million people, only 39 percent of population growth was due to newcomers moving there.
6.67 million

The state Office of Financial Management's estimates place Washington's population at 6.67 million as of April 1, a 1.2 percent increase during the previous 12 months and sizable step down from the most recent 1.9 percent growth peak in 2006.

Theresa Lowe, the state's chief demographer, said although Washington remains economically more attractive than California, Oregon and other states, population gains due to people moving to our state have dropped from 81,000 in 2006 to 58,000 in 2008 and 39,000 for 2009.

"The continued housing contraction nationwide and poor economic conditions appear to be limiting the mobility of the population," Lowe said in a statement. "Many job seekers are finding it difficult to sell their homes or to relocate to accept employment at the price of paying two mortgages for an extended period."

The state estimates indicate that Vancouver had 164,150 residents as of April 1, a 1.3 percent increase from the April 2008 estimate.

Vancouver remains the fourth biggest city in Washington, a spot that is has held during the entire decade. Even though Vancouver's growth rate was even lower than Clark County's during the past year, it still was one of the highest among the state's 10 most populous cities, trailing only Seattle and Kent for percentage increase.

The U.S. Census Bureau also released its own population estimates Tuesday night, but those figures reflect a July 1, 2008, date, which make them precisely a year old.

The Census Bureau estimates Vancouver had 163,186 as of July 2008. Vancouver was the 143rd biggest city in the nation, bracketed by Garden Grove, Calif., with 165,796 people, and Grand Prairie, Texas, with 160,641 people.

Among cities with at least 100,000 residents, Vancouver ranked 57th for percentage growth between July 2007 and July 2008 and 82nd for percentage increase since April 2000.

Jeffrey Mize: 360-735-4542 or jeff.mize@columbian.com.