Email This   Larger Font      Print This   Smaller Font Advertisement 2008 OUTLOOK Preliminary estimates indicate that Clark County's nonfarm employment grew by 3,000 jobs, or 2.2 percent, in 2007. By the end of 2008, look for slower growth, around 1,600 jobs, or 1.2 percent. The Clark County construction industry experienced its slowest year for housing in two decades in 2007. There shouldn't be much if any improvement in 2008. Look for a small gain in 2008, as the falling dollar gives domestic producers an edge over the competition and makes new investment from European-based companies a distinct possibility.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008
By Scott Bailey, Columbian forecaster

Most observers expect the U.S. economy to slow in 2008, with an outside chance of a recession, as the housing market decline continues.

Fewer housing starts and growing numbers of foreclosures will impact the construction, finance and retail industries, and high gas prices will continue to be a wild card. Southwest Washington will not be immune to these effects.

Preliminary estimates indicate that Clark County's nonfarm employment grew by 3,000 jobs, or 2.2 percent, in 2007. By the end of 2008, look for slower growth, around 1,600 jobs, or 1.2 percent.

The construction industry added only about 100 jobs in 2007. Housing permits though September were running 25 percent below 2006 levels, which in turn were more than 20 percent below 2005 levels. It looks like 2007 was the slowest year for housing in two decades.

With lending practices tightening up, and a growing number of foreclosures, there shouldn't be much if any improvement in 2008. Employment levels in construction will likely drop by 300 jobs, or 2 percent.

Manufacturing was down by only about 100 jobs in 2007, despite the loss of jobs in the paper industry. Look for a small gain in 2008, as the falling dollar gives domestic producers an edge over the competition and makes new investment from European-based companies a distinct possibility.

The trade, transportation and utilities sector was a major source of new employment in 2007: It added 1,200 jobs, a 5 percent gain. That will likely change this year. Taxable retail sales data show that in the second quarter of 2007, sales were slightly lower than in 2006 after adjustment for inflation. With less cash from refinancing available to consumers, look for only about 600 new jobs from this sector in 2008. The information industry did little new hiring in 2007, a trend that should continue into this year. Finance and real estate may see some job losses as housing sales decline and the subprime mortgage mess gets sorted out.

Openings will be more plentiful in professional and business services. Upper-end services such as engineering and computer systems will continue their expansion. Temp-agency activity dropped steeply in the first half of 2007, with no rebound expected for 2008. Other segments, such as business support services (call centers, for example) and services to buildings (such as landscaping and janitorial), may enjoy modest expansion.

Health care and education

Health and education services added about 600 jobs in 2007 and will likely do the same in 2008, with most of the new hires in outpatient health care clinics.

After quite a bit of hiring in 2006, leisure and hospitality didn't add any jobs in 2007. Look for a small improvement in 2008.

Finally, government payrolls grew by 400 jobs in 2007 - 100 at the state level and 300 in local government offices. K-12 schools had no net hires. Look for a repeat in 2008.