Obama’s July 2011 target complicates situation that’s already chaotic
Perhaps President Obama had no choice but to say he’d begin a withdrawal from Afghanistan in 18 months. Perhaps a war-weary American public would have rejected an open-ended commitment of troops.
But in trying to mollify his domestic audience, Obama may have lost the audience most crucial to the success of the policy. I mean the Afghan people, and the Pakistani military — without whose cooperation this strategy cannot work.
Setting this deadline may have made sense from a domestic perspective. It will calm some Americans who fear another Vietnam (even though the analogy is faulty). Moreover, as Obama indicated late in his speech, there is a caveat to this date certain: It will be based on “conditions on the ground,” meaning it can be pushed back if the Afghan situation doesn’t improve as fast as the president hopes.
But I fear that the mention of a specific date for starting a pullback — July 2011 — sends the wrong signals to Afghans and Pakistanis. They won’t grasp caveats and nuance. They are more likely to deduce that the Americans have their eyes on the exits, and that the Taliban will reign in 18 months’ time.