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Offense could be M’s shortcoming

The Columbian
Published: April 17, 2010, 12:00am

Well, at least they have Franklin Gutierrez.

Heading into this weekend, the Mariners’ center fielder was batting .385 with a .429 on-base percentage and a .462 slugging percentage. Which, in Seattle’s lineup, kind of makes him look like Gulliver in the land of Lilliputians — at least before Friday’s outburst.

But even more significant is Gutierrez’s role in the Mariners’ grand experiment. Seattle has been at the forefront of a movement in which teams emphasize fielding, and Gutierrez’s status as baseball’s best defensive outfielder is a big part of that.

Punchless M’s

Here are the Offensive Winning Percentages for 2010, 2009, and career of this year’s Seattle Mariners regulars:

2010 2009 Career

C–Rob Johnson .402 .253 .246

1B–Casey Kotchman .298 .476 .469

2B–Chone Figgins .552 .580 .522

3B–Jose Lopez .341 .420 .396

SS–Jack Wilson .142 .371 .395

LF–Milton Bradley .258 .553 .577

CF–Franklin Gutierrez .734 .487 .454

RF–Ichiro Suzuki .204 .666 .619

DH–Ken Griffey Jr. .114 .464 .666

NOTE: Offensive Winning Percentage indicates a player’s offensive prowess. It reflects a team’s winning percentage with a lineup of nine copies of the same player, if backed by average pitching and defense. An OWP mark of .500 is average.

Punchless M's

Here are the Offensive Winning Percentages for 2010, 2009, and career of this year's Seattle Mariners regulars:

2010 2009 Career

C--Rob Johnson .402 .253 .246

1B--Casey Kotchman .298 .476 .469

2B--Chone Figgins .552 .580 .522

3B--Jose Lopez .341 .420 .396

SS--Jack Wilson .142 .371 .395

LF--Milton Bradley .258 .553 .577

CF--Franklin Gutierrez .734 .487 .454

RF--Ichiro Suzuki .204 .666 .619

DH--Ken Griffey Jr. .114 .464 .666

NOTE: Offensive Winning Percentage indicates a player's offensive prowess. It reflects a team's winning percentage with a lineup of nine copies of the same player, if backed by average pitching and defense. An OWP mark of .500 is average.

SOURCE: baseball-reference.com

SOURCE: baseball-reference.com

Prior to the 2009 season, general manager Jack Zduriencik remade his roster to focus on defense, and the result was an improvement from 61 wins to 85 wins.

According to John Dewan, author of “The Fielding Bible,” Seattle’s defense saved 110 runs last year — 45 more than any other club. And that could be directly credited for the improvement in the standings.

This year, the Mariners traveled further down that road:

• They allowed first baseman Russell Branyan to leave, even though he led the team in home runs, walks and slugging percentage in 2009. Branyan has been replaced at first base by Casey Kotchman, a slick fielder who has struggled at the plate the past two seasons.

• They re-signed shortstop Jack Wilson, whose value is mostly defensive, to a two-year deal.

• They brought in Chone Figgins with a four-year contract, installing him at second base and moving Jose Lopez to third base.

In theory, the Figgins signing also will aid the offense; he’s a better hitter than previous third baseman Adrian Beltre. But all of the Mariners’ offseason moves were designed to further improve a defense that already was the best in baseball.

For example, in 2009, Seattle had a Defensive Efficiency Rating of .712, the best mark in the American League. DER measures how often a team turns a batted ball into an out, and it’s an effective assessment of a team’s overall fielding ability.

But in focusing on defense and trying to make efficient use of Safeco Field, one of the better pitcher’s parks in the major leagues, Seattle just might have gone to far this season.

Look at the batting statistics of the regular lineup (see chart). Only Ichiro and perhaps Figgins and maybe the mercurial Milton Bradley have the ability to put many runs on the board.

Gutierrez batted .283 with 18 home runs last year, but still was a below-average offensive player. He had a great deal of value because of his fielding, but even in the best season of his career he wasn’t an offensive dynamo.

With Kotchman, Wilson, catcher Rob Johnson, and designated hitter Ken Griffey Jr., the Mariners have a lot of black holes in the lineup.

And maybe that’s OK. Seattle’s emphasis on defense reflects the philosophy spelled out in “Moneyball,” which chronicled how the Oakland A’s built competitive teams by exploiting inefficiencies in the market. At the time, players with high on-base percentages were undervalued; these days, good fielders are the ones who can be picked up at bargain prices.

Even the Boston Red Sox, who annually rank among the leaders in payroll, eschewed some offense this past offseason in order to shore up their defense.

But the question is whether the Mariners will score enough runs to be competitive, or whether they’ll merely set some sort of record for 2-1 losses. A great defense can make a pitching staff look awfully good and keep the hurlers awfully happy, but an impotent offense can lead to frustration.

Through the first 10 games this season, Seattle ranked last in the AL with 28 runs.

Sure, it’s still early. The offense will improve, and in a weak division the Mariners might turn out to be as good as anybody. And who knows? If Gutierrez can continue to be as effective at the plate as he is in the field, then the Mariners’ grand experiment just might pay off.

Questions or comments for By the Numbers? Contact Greg Jayne, Sports editor of The Columbian, at 360-735-4531, or by e-mail at greg.jayne@columbian.com. To read his blog, go to columbian.com/weblogs/GregJayne

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