As the Evergreen State picks up a new seat in Congress, Southwest Washington’s sprawling 3rd Congressional District is near certain to turn a shade more to the “red,” or Republican, side.
What’s long been a swing district prone to embrace either GOP or Democratic party candidates — favoring both Barack Obama in 2008 and Dino Rossi for U.S. Senate in November 2010, for instance — is likely to lose a thick portion of reliably “blue” Thurston County.
That area, the 3rd’s largest voting segment outside Clark County, nearly equal to Lewis and Cowlitz counties’ combined count, has proved a solid Democratic counterweight to conservative tendencies elsewhere. It’s been largely responsible for the district’s seesaw character.
Now Olympia insiders expect it to become part of a new 10th District cobbled from greater south Puget Sound, stretching from Pierce County to the Olympia-Tumwater area.
Or, at least, sliced away so the 3rd can shed about 115,000 residents to reach the new (and smaller) 670,000 population target for each of the state’s 10 districts.
If so, how much change to expect in the new 3rd?
Take last month’s battle for the open U.S. House seat, in which Republican Jaime Herrera bested Democrat Denny Heck.
In total, Herrera won about 53 percent of 288,453 votes cast.
Subtract the strongly pro-Heck Thurston County portion — its 61,555 votes more than one-fifth of all ballots cast in the hard-fought race — and Herrera easily pulls away, 56 percent to 44 percent.
Granted, 2010 was a standout GOP year. Still, that’s a pretty solid base on which a one-term incumbent could run in 2012, the first election cycle when new district boundaries take effect.
“I don’t know what else you could ask for, if you’re running in an election,” said Brandon Vick, newly elected Clark County Republican Party chairman.
“We’re excited that we just elected Jaime Herrera and she’s a Camas resident, right in the middle of the district. (A condensed 3rd) is maybe not a sure thing, but a district we’re comfortable with,” Vick said. “We’re not worried about her, at all.”
Sam Reed, Washington’s secretary of state and one of only two Republicans who now hold statewide office (Attorney General Rob McKenna, the other), expects the 3rd to shake loose Thurston County.
“I certainly think the 3rd is going to move south. If that scenario plays out, Jaime Herrera’s going to have a pretty good district for us,” Reed said, wearing a GOP hat.
State Sen. Craig Pridemore, D-Vancouver, who did enter the 3rd District Democratic primary race but dropped out as Heck became the clear leader, doesn’t disagree.
He suspects Republicans would concede Democrats prime turf for a new 10th District in return for drawing “safer” seats for incumbents Herrera and 8th District U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert, R-Auburn, when redistricting negotiations heat up.
But Pridemore said he’s convinced the 3rd will retain a swing mentality.
“The 3rd District is neither Democratic or Republican. It’s about (candidates) fighting for real people,” Pridemore said. “That’s what Brian Baird proved.” Indeed, Herrera’s Democratic predecessor took 63 percent and 64 percent of the general election vote in 2006 and ’08, respectively.
Sprawling, still
Reed suggests leading options for a new 10th district are the south Puget Sound area that includes Olympia, or perhaps a wide chunk of northeast King County, bending from east Bellevue south into rural Pierce County.
The latter is likely to push the current 9th District farther south along I-5, to absorb the Olympia area. Either way, Thurston is likely to depart the 3rd.
If so, the 3rd would need to add some modest territory elsewhere to meet its population mark: Perhaps Klickitat County, home to about 20,500 residents and formerly part of the district; maybe a slice of Yakima County, Reed said.
Despite Clark County’s growing muscle, the reshaped district will still geographically cover a wide swath, from the Pacific Ocean to the Columbia River Gorge.
“It’s all speculation, at this point,” Reed said. Real progress will begin by January, when the four members of the state’s bipartisan redistricting panel are named, he said.
Serving ‘current 3rd’
Herrera declined Tuesday to guess where boundaries might land, but she acknowledged that pending change in the 3rd comes as no surprise.
“With all of our growth down here, everybody’s known we’re going to have to shrink a bit,” she said. “I haven’t worried too much about what’s going to happen. Clark County’s going to be smack-dab in the middle of the 3rd, and I’m happy about that,” she said.
At the same time, Herrera vowed to fully represent Thurston County and all other portions of the current district the next two years, before any lines are redrawn: “This current 3rd District are the folks that elected me; that’s the key.”
She joined Reed, Vick and others in celebrating the state’s new U.S. House seat.
