Here are some of the trends that will likely be seen in in 2010:
• Banks will repair and reduce balance sheets rather than lend and grow in the coming year.
Around the country, bank management is focused upon survival. Careful attention is paid to maintaining adequate liquidity, and protecting or building capital. Fundamentally, banks need to continue making loans, because this is what produces revenue, which increases capital. Typically, banks will carry more capital than required by regulators, thus holding a capital “cushion.” This way, they can continue to make new loans. This, along with a loss allowance, also allows the bank to withstand minor loan losses, should they occur. In the current crisis, with losses from loans much higher than normal, bank regulators are requiring banks to hold more capital than ever before. Banks can sell more bank stock to increase capital, but capital ratios are also increased by shrinking the loan portfolio. Increased capital ratios will please bank regulators. Unfortunately, this might require banks to reduce the lending it would normally do in the community. That would seem to be at odds with attempts to stimulate the economy. It is all a delicate balance. Bank regulators are in no mood for any weaknesses. Banks with capital and cash will acquire what is left of banks that die.
• Credit will be cheap but not easy to get.
The government has intervened in the banking, lending and borrowing processes, probably to an extent never before seen. The Federal Reserve has pushed short-term interest rates to generational lows, with the federal funds target rate at 0 percent to 0.25 percent. Furthermore, the government has pumped some $700 billion of capital into various programs, including more than $200 billion into selected banks through the Capital Purchase Program. Large insurance companies have gotten a share. We have seen $8,000 tax credits for first-time home buyers’ extended through April 30, and to include $6,500 in tax credits for certain existing and former homeowners who move to a new home.
Also, the Home Affordable Modification Program is designed to reduce delinquent and at-risk borrowers’ monthly mortgage payments, for as many as 7 to 9 million homeowners, making their mortgages more affordable and helping to prevent the destructive impact of foreclosures on families, communities and the national economy.