Forecast: Travel, tourism industry begins slow recovery

While the clouds are certainly beginning to clear and skies are getting a little brighter, we need to look at last year’s trends to see what’s in store for Clark County’s tourism industry in 2010.

In the first nine months of 2009, U.S. domestic travel was down 3.8 percent. Leisure travel fared better than other types of travel, but was still down 2.7 percent for the same period. The recession affected domestic business travel much more negatively, with a decline of 7.5 percent in the first nine months of 2009. The meetings sector experienced even more significant declines.

o Locally and nationally, we will see a slow but sustained recovery in the travel and tourism industry.

o The rebound will likely be slower for hotels, which will see a modest rebound of the convention and meetings business.

o Modest increases are expected in visitor spending in Clark County, reaching $450 million.

o Clark County has a great deal to offer visitors and those visitors in turn help Clark County’s economy. The tourism economic weather forecast for 2010: Look for mild temperatures with a few sun breaks.

Heading into 2010, consumer confidence is lagging, affecting spending in significant ways. But the good news, coming from a report by the U.S. Travel Association, is that there has been dramatic improvement in consumers’ perceptions of the affordability of travel. This perception is due to the significant reductions in the cost of many travel services during a time of weak demand. There are also positive signs that leisure travelers may be willing to start spending a bit more on their trips. According to a TravelHorizons survey conducted in October, which measured domestic travel intentions compared to a year ago, a greater number of potential travelers are saying they plan to stay more nights away from home, drive longer distances, spend more on food and entertainment, and use more expensive hotels.

This is good news for the leisure travel sector, which is expected to increase 2 percent, with a corresponding increase in overall leisure travel spending (lodging, food, gas, etc.) of nearly 5 percent this year, according to the U.S. Travel Association. This projected growth, albeit modest, will come as consumer confidence and consumer spending improves.

Improvement in domestic business travel will be only slightly better than leisure travel. Business travel is projected to increase by 2.5 percent, with a corresponding increase in overall business travel spending of 4 percent.

These increases will be, in part, due to pent-up demand for travel and meetings after a sluggish 2009.

New corporate culture

As companies begin to ease restrictions and business travel picks back up, it will likely be within a new corporate culture in which we will see a heightened focus on value. Expect to see strict controls and corporate travel policies with tighter restrictions on premium class travel and high-end hotels. Companies will also have much more oversight of their meeting planning and meeting spending. This sector, however, is expected to improve slightly in 2010 as companies that have deferred face-to-face meetings are now finding it a necessary cost of business and essential to increasing sales. Meeting planners will also be influenced by travel costs that will remain below pre-recession levels. The cost of air travel is expected to increase slightly over 2009; car rental costs are expected to remain nearly flat.

For hotels, recovery is expected to be a bit slower. Smith Travel Research, the recognized leader for hotel industry benchmarking and research, forecasts continued occupancy, revenue and rate declines through 2010. This sector of the industry suffered insurmountable downturns during the recession. In 2009, as business travel and leisure spending dropped off, the hotel industry struggled to keep occupancy and revenue levels up and responded by reducing rates and trimming costs. Through September, Clark County’s average hotel room rate was down 11.8 percent from the year before. Occupancy during the same period was down 14.3 percent, with an average occupancy of 52.2 percent .

Smith Travel Research projects the U.S. hotel industry will see an overall decline in occupancy of 0.6 percent this year despite an expected uptick in demand of 1.3 percent by the end of the year.

Full-service properties get a majority of their business from convention and group meetings business. Because this business is booked a year or two in advance, locally we already have seen an improvement in the outlook at the start of this year. At the start of the year, the convention bureau’s booking pace for group business was up, with nearly 1,000 more pre-sold hotel rooms than at the start of 2009.

Route and capacity reductions made by the airlines, in an effort to equalize the decrease in demand in 2009, are expected to force prices up in North America in 2010, higher than most other regions. According to the American Express Business Travel 2010 forecast, ticket prices in North America will increase between 2 percent and 7 percent for economy class and 1 percent to 6 percent in business class. The airlines’ fees and surcharges will boost prices even higher.

Although state reporting for visitor spending is somewhat delayed, there is positive news in the recently released 2008 Statewide County Impacts study, which shows that visitors to Clark County spent $420.9 million in 2008, which was an increase of 5.38 percent over the previous year.

This ranked Clark County sixth out of the state’s 39 counties in visitor spending. More than $103 million was spent on food services, while accommodations accounted for $46.3 million and retail sales another $57.2 million. The industry also generated $29.7 million in state and local sales tax receipts in 2008. Hospitality industry earnings were $105 million in 2008, up from $102.5 million in 2007. These earnings represent 4,040 jobs for our local market.

Locally and nationally, we will see a slow but sustained recovery in the travel and tourism industry for 2010. Real post-recession growth is still 18 to 24 months away.