The Republican “tsunami” that swept the nation Tuesday and cost Democrats control of the U.S. House felt more like a wavelet by the time it reached Clark County.
The tide did help carry Republican state Rep. Jaime Herrera to victory in the 3rd Congressional District over Democrat Denny Heck.
But the reelection of Democratic U.S. Sen. Patty Murray to a fourth term despite a hard-fought challenge from Republican Dino Rossi may prove the most significant election result for Southwest Washington in the long run.
As long as Murray continues to chair the powerful Senate Transportation Appropriations Subcommittee, the region will continue to benefit from her clout as Congress considers a new six-year transportation bill next year — it is expected to include significant funding for a new Columbia River Crossing.
“Patty Murray is hugely important to the project and to getting support from the federal level,” said state Sen. Craig Pridemore, D-Vancouver.
“We’re looking forward to working with Sen. Murray and with Congressperson-elect Herrera in securing the funding package for what is probably the greatest economic development project in the 3rd Congressional District’s history,” said state Rep. Jim Moeller, D-Vancouver, a member of the state’s House Transportation Committee.
The federal government is expected to contribute $400 million to the $3.4 billion project for construction of the bridge and about $800 million for construction of a light rail line.
During her campaign, Herrera said she believes a new bridge over the Columbia River is needed but would oppose burdensome tolls on Clark County commuters. If elected, she said, she would “do everything in my power to make sure the federal government bears the lion’s share of responsibility” for paying for the bridge.
“As a state legislator who represents Clark and Cowlitz Counties, I’ve spent countless hours listening to locals, officials and business leaders discuss this key project,” she said in response to a questionnaire from The Columbian. “I’ll use my position as this region’s federal representative to bring these interests to the table and secure the federal resources to get it done.”
Herrera’s victory means a Republican will represent the 3rd District for the first time since 1994. The district, established after the 1900 census, has been represented by Democrats for all but four years since the mid-20th century. Republican maverick Linda Smith was elected to the seat in the 1994 GOP sweep and stepped down four years later to run unsuccessfully against Murray.
Herrera will succeed U.S. Rep. Brian Baird, D-Vancouver, who beat state Sen. Don Benton to win the seat in 1998 and easily won reelection five times.
She’ll likely have more influence going in than most freshmen. Not only will her party control the House, she’ll also be helped by the fact that her mentor and former boss, U.S. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, who represents eastern Washington’s sprawling 5th Congressional District, is vice chairman of the House Republican Conference.
“We’ll be holding Rep. Herrera accountable for all her campaign promises,” said Clark County Democratic Chair Dena Horton. “If she plans to march lockstep with the Republican leadership and stall everything for two years, and then try to blame President Obama and the Democrats, that’s not acceptable. There are some serious infrastructure needs in the 3rd District, and people expect her to be more than a partisan placeholder.”
Though Herrera will replace a Democrat, Baird was far from a party-line partisan. He has not hesitated to take stands that infuriated his Democratic constituency, including his support for President George W. Bush’s Iraq troop surge and his vote for a security fence along the U.S.-Mexico border.
With Herrera’s election, Republicans could become the majority in Washington’s nine-member House delegation for the first time since the 1994 GOP sweep. The tally was 4-4 as of Friday, with the yet-to-be-decided race between Democratic U.S. Rep. Rick Larsen and John Koster, a Tea Party Republican endorsed by Sarah Palin, in Northwest Washington’s 2nd District leaning toward Larsen.
Shift in legislature
Closer to home, Republicans gained a seat in Clark County’s legislative delegation with the election of businessman Paul Harris to the open seat being vacated by state Rep. Deb Wallace, a Democrat.
Democrats have held both 17th District House seats for the past two years, but Republicans still consider it their turf.
“Historically it’s been Republican,” said Clark County GOP Chairman Ryan Hart. Since redistricting 10 years ago, “it has been more of a swing district,” he said, “but we do believe our message better resonates with the people in the 17th. “
All Democratic incumbents — Jim Moeller and Jim Jacks in the heavily Democratic 49th District and Tim Probst in the 17th — held on to their seats despite serious challenges from Republican opponents.
“Craig Riley and Bill Cismar both made the Democrats work in the 49th District,” Hart said. He noted that no Republican has been elected in the 49th since Republican state Sen. Don Carlson lost to Democrat Craig Pridemore in 2004.
The traditionally Republican 18th stayed that way, with Republican Ann Rivers easily winning election to Herrera’s seat. Rep. Ed Orcutt skated to victory unopposed.
“It absolutely could have been worse,” Horton said. “We’re basically seeing a repeat of previous patterns. The 49th is still solidly Democratic, the 18th is still solidly Republican, and the 17th is still split. The Republican wave didn’t make much of an impact.”
Statewide, Republicans are poised to gain seats — and clout — in both the state House and the state Senate. At week’s end, Republicans had gained a net four Senate seats, with two races in King County and one in Snohomish County too close to call. Democrats currently hold a 31-18 advantage, so Republicans need to win all three undecided races to control the chamber.
A GOP takeover of the state Senate would likely propel state Sen. Joe Zarelli, R-Ridgefield, ranking Republican on the Senate Ways and Means Committee, to chairman of the budget-writing committee. That would put him in charge of cutting state spending as the 2011 Legislature confronts a projected budget deficit of $5 billion in the 2011-13 budget cycle.
Even with a gain of four seats in the Senate, Republicans will have more clout, Zarelli said Tuesday.
“On the issue of the day, the budget, everything will have to be looked at from a center-right perspective,” he said.
“It is very likely to be center-right,” said Pridemore, who also sits on Ways and Means. “I don’t think that’s a function of the vote in the Senate. It’s a function of the continuing budget crisis.”
On the House side, Republicans picked up between two and six seats, not enough to challenge Democratic control — the GOP would need a net gain of 13 seats to do that.
“When I woke up on Nov. 2, I was really dreading it being another 1994,” Moeller said. “It’s not a rout. We still maintain a more than workable majority in the House and it looks like we’ll have a workable majority in the Senate.”
Locally, GOP Chair Hart noted, the election will shift the balance of power among Clark County’s nine elected officials. In 2008, just three of those offices were held by Republicans. As a result of the 2009 and 2010 elections, that balance has shifted to 6-3 in favor of Republicans.
“County government has been controlled by Democrats for years,” Hart said. “The Legislature has been controlled by Democrats for years. Some of these jobs may not have oversight or lawmaking ability, but in all of these jobs, county or legislative, you can look for ways to control costs, cut spending and reduce taxes.”
‘What gets cut’
Voters’ verdicts on several ballot initiatives will complicate the Legislature’s budget-writing task.
They passed Initiative 1107, which repeals new taxes on candy, gum, bottled water and carbonated beverages. That decision will create a $54.8 million hole in the budget for the remainder of the current budget cycle and $217.6 million in 2011-13, according to the Department of Revenue. The taxes on candy, gum and bottled water will go away after Dec. 1.
“The additional cuts we will have to make due to this loss of revenue will have significant consequences,” Gregoire said last week.
Voters also decisively passed Initiative 1053, which reinstates a voter-approved requirement suspended by the 2010 Legislature that requires a two-thirds majority in each legislative chamber to raise taxes. With fewer Democrats serving in each house, that vote will take new taxes off the table as a budget-balancing tool for the next two years.
“Regardless of who has the majority, it’s pretty clear there is going to be strong resistance from the majority of both caucuses to raising taxes,” Moeller said.
Deep cuts will be necessary, he said, “but we will be looking for all kinds of ways to continue to provide what we as Democrats believe are central services to our aging, disabled and very young.”
“Initiative 1053 actually makes the debate easier because the hardest thing last session was deciding on a tax package.” Pridemore said. “That’s off the table. The only debate is about what gets cut.”
Kathie Durbin: 360-735-4523 or kathie.durbin@columbian.com.
