3rd District’s lines to be redrawn soon

Take a good look at that race in the 3rd Congressional District. No, not the candidates (Camas Republican Jaime Herrera or Olympia Democrat Denny Heck, to succeed Brian Baird). I’m talking about the district itself.

This will be the last election for the 3rd as we know it. The 2010 Census will trigger the decennial redistricting efforts, and the two fastest growing congressional districts in our state are the 3rd (Clark, Pacific, Wahkiakum and Cowlitz counties and most of Thurston and Skamania counties) and the 8th (Bellevue, eastern King and Pierce County). Both districts will shrink in geographical size to meet redistricting standards. Then, the 2012 election will be based on the redrawn boundaries.

Take a good look, because this is the largest 3rd you’ll ever see, and it’s probably going to turn a lot more red.

Congressional and legislative districts are redrawn every 10 years based on the fundamental definition of a democracy. Each district should have nearly equal population (constituents, potential voters). District lines should coincide with city and county boundaries when possible, and the districts must be as compact as possible. This redistricting process might appear academic, but in fact it is drenched in political high drama. Here’s why:

Our state has nine congressional representatives. Six Democrats would seem more powerful than three Republicans, but the GOP is making a comeback this year. The elephants are frisky, and the donkeys are nervous.

The 3rd and the 8th, which are expected to be drastically modified, are swing districts, i.e. intensely coveted by both parties. The 8th voted for John Kerry in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2008, but for 27 years has elected three Republican U.S. representatives, including the current Dave Reichert.

The 3rd went with George W. Bush in 2004 but favored Obama in 2008. Retiring Brian Baird is a Democrat, but Republican Herrera is leading in most polls, although Democrat Heck has been narrowing the gap. Obviously, these two districts are crucial to the futures of both parties.

North line to move south?

How will the 3rd shrink as a result of redistricting? Conventional wisdom is that the northern line will move south and the 3rd will lose Olympia, a relatively liberal city. Likely to remain in the 3rd is the ultra-conservative Centralia-Chehalis area.

On the other hand, redistricting might move Washougal and Camas out of the 3rd, which would be unfortunate because all of Clark County needs to remain in the same district.

Reconfiguring the 3rd could require a change in residence of the sitting U.S. representative. If Heck wins and Olympia leaves the 3rd, he might consider moving to Vancouver to retain most of his constituency. Or he might decide to stay in Olympia’s new district. If Herrera wins and Camas is moved out of the 3rd, she might consider moving to Vancouver, or staying in Camas, for the same reasons.

Speculation about redistricting becomes even more, well, speculative when you realize that Washington is expected to be granted a 10th seat in Congress. And that corresponding increase in congressional clout? Just call it modest compensation for the state’s rampant growth. Most of the growth has been in the Puget Sound area, and this supports the prediction that the 3rd’s northern boundary will be moved southward. In fact, if that 10th district is tucked in around South Sound, the 3rd could be considerably flattened.

No one knows how this will play out, but we do know that our state’s redistricting process is far superior to the partisan free-for-alls that erupt in many other states, and which usually become entangled in countless court actions. Instead of letting politicians (in the majority party) draw boundaries, our state uses a Redistricting Commission appointed by the Legislature, with two Democrats, two Republicans, a nonvoting chairman and a bunch of computers. It’s not totally apolitical; “bumps” get blended into districts to accommodate occasional requests from elected officials, but the commission and not the Legislature decides. Sorry about the lack of fireworks, but the system is as fair as possible to everyone affected.

John Laird is The Columbian’s editorial page editor. His column of personal opinion appears each Sunday. Reach him at john.laird@columbian.com.