Weather Eye: Winter’s chill expected to settle in for at least a few days
Thursday, November 3, 2011
It was downright chilly Wednesday morning, with all areas out of the east winds in Clark County dipping into the 20s. I recorded 25 degrees with a very heavy frost. In the windy areas overnight temperatures remained in the 30s but of course with the wind chill felt much colder.
More winter weather was heading our way Wednesday afternoon and remaining for a while as the higher mountains get a good early season blanket of snow. For the lowlands it will be a chilly rain and we may not see high temperatures getting out of the 40s for the next several days at least.
Getting back to the winter predictions from last Saturday’s weather meeting, we will go with Pete Parsons’ outlook. He always introduces his procedure as PWODT, or Pete’s way of doing things. Basically, as with the other forecasters, he chooses several analog years that compare to the weather we have had so far this year and then see what the winter weather was like.
Parsons forecasts above-average temperatures early and it would be a bonus if the ski areas open by Thanksgiving. Then in December things will be turning stormy and cooler into January, with another cold February. This time around when we get cold air we will have a better chance of having snow. Most mountain snowpacks will be above normal by late January through February. Bottom line: overall cooler and wetter than average this winter.
He says our average annual snowfall is about 4.5 inches and we could get 7.5 inches this year. Above-average snow is predicted for the valleys and he advises to watch out for maybe some freezing rain.
It was interesting that one of the analog years he used was 2008. Remember all the snow we had in December 2008? Time will tell, my friends.
Bundle up, throw an extra log on the fire and get a cup of your favorite hot brew and weather the incoming storms and we will chat and share some more winter predictions on Sunday!
Patrick Timm is a local weather specialist. His column appears Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays. Reach him at http://weathersystems.com.