Weather Eye: Weather experts agree: La Niña will make winter wetter, cooler
Sunday, November 6, 2011
More snow has fallen in the Cascades and could even be seen at times Saturday afternoon on the foothills to our east. A cool-weather pattern continues with a slight warm up midweek and then cooling later in the week.
Looking further ahead some forecast models suggest quite chilly weather next week, with low snow levels. A ways out, so we just keep watching the model runs.
Meanwhile, I need to share the remaining winter forecasts with you from Oct. 29’s weather conference. Dave Elson, from the National Weather Service office in Portland, presented the NWS winter outlook, which calls for above-average precipitation and temperatures near normal or cooler this winter. It expects an above-average snow pack once again in the Cascades.
Kyle Dittmer, from the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission, predicts temperatures to be about normal from now through March. He expects this month to have above-average rainfall continuing into December. January and February are expected to be near normal and March above average. He also expects us to have a good chance of metro-area snow this year.
Jim Little, from the Oregon Department of Forestry, gave his presentation on the winter and came up with a mixed bag. He expects this month to be about normal rain-wise and warmer than average.
December will be above average for both precipitation and temperatures. January will have near-normal temperatures and above-average rainfall. February is cooler than normal with normal precipitation. March concludes the winter with below-average rainfall and near-normal temperatures.
That about sums it up as far as the weather forecasters go. The bottom line, despite variations from some of their monthly predictions, is that with La Niña present for a second winter in a row, we should see temperatures overall averaging below normal.
We are already off to a good start with that. I would also expect precipitation to follow a pattern like last year’s, with the coolest and wettest weather later in January and into February. I do believe we could see more lowland snow this winter than last, with any cold outbreaks. My two cents’ worth.
Enjoy your week, and I will share last month’s local rainfall in a few days.
Patrick Timm is a local weather specialist. His column appears Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays. Reach him at http://weathersystems.com.