Weather Eye: Forecasts see a pretty typical winter around here
Thursday, October 6, 2011
A spattering of winter forecasts is coming in — the usual almanacs and now AccuWeather. Basically for us, they foresee a fairly typical winter — precipitation near normal, temperatures average to just slightly below normal. Cascades snowfall is expected to be a little above average. They also believe we will see a parade of good winter storms off the Pacific and possible Pineapple Express episodes.
We could see mild periods early in December, then cold outbreaks later in the month through January. A potpourri of weather events, so to speak. Local experts will present their prognostications Oct. 29 at OMSI. The public is invited.
Another winter with La Niña conditions is on tap, but it should be weaker than last year. The main aspects of this are that there is a tendency toward wetter-than-average conditions before January, with temperatures about normal, and then after the first of the year, we should expect cooler and wet conditions, which usually translates to a good snowpack and occasional bouts of snow at low levels.
Last month, Vancouver received only 0.62 of an inch of rain, which was only 40 percent of average for September. We were one of the driest locations in Western Washington. Seattle was 60 percent of normal and Olympia 95 percent of normal. Quillayute, thanks to a couple of real soakers, had 201 percent of normal rainfall. Nice living in the banana belt, eh?
The upper Cascades received a dusting of snow Tuesday and early Wednesday, but that won’t last. At least it is a tease of more to come. If the weather pattern goes as projected, we could have skiing in full swing for Thanksgiving.
I threw a dart at my dart board on the wall for weather on Halloween. Looks like it landed on dry and cool. So maybe a crisp autumn night for the festivities, always subject to change, of course!
Patrick Timm is a local weather specialist. His column appears Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays. Reach him at http://weathersystems.com.