The Everest-size electoral challenge facing President Obama is encapsulated in a single question in the latest Washington Post/Bloomberg poll: Would the economy be better or worse if a Republican were elected president in 2012? There are three interesting aspects to the answers: the overall result, the divided state of Democratic voters, and the even more skeptical attitude of independents.
On the basic question, nearly half of those polled (45 percent) believe the economy would be the same no matter whether a Republican or Democrat is in the White House. This conclusion is not unreasonable. A president’s ability to bring about short-term improvements in the economy is limited, even if he could wave a magic executive wand and see his program instantly enacted. In the current, gridlocked environment, presidential power is even more constrained. The paradox for voters is that at the same time nearly half don’t believe a president will make a difference, the economy is at the top of their list of concerns. One possibility is that voters will base their choice on other issues or stick with their party allegiance, if they have one. Another, which seems at least as likely, is that they will decide that Obama has had his chance and that someone else deserves a try.
Which leads to the second aspect of the answers: the division, even among Democrats, about whether the economy would be worse if Obama were to lose. Almost half (48 percent) said it would be worse, but the number who believed it would be the same was nearly equal (44 percent). The split among Republicans was far sharper: 63 percent thought the economy would be better if a Republican were elected president while only 29 percent believed it would be the same. This striking difference both reflects and explains the enthusiasm gap between Democratic and Republican voters this election. The voters of one party — Republicans — think the outcome matters much more than do voters on the other side. This does not bode well for Democratic turnout.
Independents are crucial
The key to the election, of course, will be independent voters, about one-third of the electorate. In the Post/Bloomberg poll, independents were markedly more skeptical about whether a different president would make a difference for the economy. A clear majority (55 percent) said the economy would be the same with a Republican president. The rest were closely split, with 17 percent thinking a Democratic president would be better for the economy and 19 percent saying a Republican would be preferable. The fundamental challenge for Obama is to convince these swing voters that his re-election would make a difference — or at least that the other candidate would be worse.