The latest revenue forecast for the state of Washington calls to mind an old blues lament. To paraphrase: If it wasn’t for bad news, we wouldn’t have any news at all.
The latest projections foresee a shortfall of $1.4 billion in state revenue between now and the end of June 2013. That’s $1.4 billion less than originally had been anticipated for schools and universities and state institutions and public health and public safety.
Bad news, indeed.
Gov. Chris Gregoire suggested last week that she will call a special session of the Legislature once updated projections are released in November, adding that she will not make across-the-board budget cuts. “That is a meat-ax approach and will not work now,” she told The Seattle Times.
Until then, legislators can only ponder how to squeeze blood from a turnip. Among the suggestions is putting a new tax package in front of voters. We’ll save the lawmakers some time: Don’t bother. Just last year, voters overwhelmingly rejected a state income-tax proposal and approved a two-thirds majority requirement for the Legislature to raise taxes.
As Rep. Ed Orcutt, R-Kalama, wondered: “How do you get more revenue out of people who still aren’t back to work? How do you get revenue out of employers who are struggling to put people back to work?” Orcutt, we believe, has effectively distilled the thoughts of the people of Washington. We would love to help state government out of this jam, but our pockets are empty.
Not that we envy the task the Legislature is facing. Earlier this year lawmakers slashed projected spending by more than $4 billion, including deep cuts to higher education that were partially offset by tuition increases. Higher education appears likely to take the brunt of the next round of cuts, as well. Other programs have federal strings attached that make them difficult to slash, and the bulk of elementary and high school financing is protected by the state constitution.
That leaves higher education as the fall guy, and that means The Great Recession will be felt for decades. The economy eventually will recover. We think. But cuts to higher education, resulting in a less-educated work force, will impact the state for years.
In this regard, Washington is not alone. Many states are facing similar dire situations, some even worse than Washington. And it makes us wonder when The Great Recession will be replaced by The Great Recovery.
As President Obama travels the country promoting his latest jobs plan, we’re not sure — if passed — that it will work. A little more than two years ago, an unprecedented stimulus bill costing taxpayers $787 billion was passed. But it didn’t pull us into a recovery.
As The Columbian wrote in a 2009 editorial, “In the economic sense, a stimulus is — or should be — a quick and short-term boost. If the federal government can trigger an economic recovery and then back away, then this devastating recession won’t last so long.”
Instead, it has lingered longer than anybody could have imagined. Because of that, we question the foresight of those who devised the state’s overly optimistic budget projections. General-fund revenue peaked at $15.7 billion in fiscal year 2008 and, after a severe dip, had recovered to $14.6 billion by fiscal year 2011. Even with the revised projections, the state is expected to bring in $2 billion more during this two-year budget cycle when compared with the previous two years, which suggests that the state will find a way to manage the latest shortfall.
Still, legislators now face unenviable decisions. As for the rest of us, isn’t it about time we had some good economic news?
