NEW YORK — The groundhog may not make his prediction until February, but Karen Gregorski thinks she already knows how the coming winter is going to turn out: very, very snowy.
Gregorski, 66, was walking carefully Tuesday down a midtown Manhattan street, her fur jacket coated with snow. Nearby, doormen shoveled sidewalks, and an apartment superintendent, with a hint of weariness, sprinkled salt on some slippery spots. This was the fourth snow shower in 10 days, and it’s not even technically winter yet.
This year and 2003 rank as the top years since 1960 for early snowfall, according to Weather 2000, a meteorological consulting firm. Philadelphia has also had its most snow to date since 1960; Pittsburgh has piled up its largest amount of snow to date since 1972.
For the Northeast, the pattern of frequent storms is likely to continue, said Michael Schlacter, chief meteorologist at Weather 2000.
“We think there will be a very early, long and consistent winter season — a ‘here we go again,’ rinse-and-repeat cycle,” he said.
Despite the snow, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Tuesday that globally, the Earth’s land and ocean surfaces had their hottest November on record. The average temperature was 55.6 degrees, 1.4 degrees above the 20th-century average for November.
New York is supposed to reach 50 degrees this weekend, but that warming prevents Canada from releasing all of its cold air at once. That means the cold air will last longer, and return with a vengeance, Schlacter said.
Historically, early snowfall has been an indication for a snowy winter, said Stephen Fybish, a New York weather historian. If the city sees 8 inches or more of snow in December, as it has this year, the next three months are very likely to have at least 17 inches, and often more, he said.
