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In Our View: End of Tunnel Glows Bright

We may not be in the clear, but signs of improving economy are indisputable

The Columbian
Published: December 25, 2013, 4:00pm

It is too early to proclaim victory — or even merely survival — in the fight against the Great Recession, but there is reason to be hopeful for a prosperous 2014 in Clark County.

The latest declaration of good news — or maybe just not-bad news — comes from the state Employment Security Department. The department released a report this week indicating that Clark County had added 3,100 jobs in the 12 months ending in November, posting an annualized 2.3 percent growth rate. Most employment sectors demonstrated growth with, for example, trade/transportation/utilities adding 800 jobs and construction growing by 600 jobs, according to regional labor economist Scott Bailey. Two of the measured sectors failed to show growth — health care lost 100 jobs and government employment had no change. In addition to the overall numbers, the breadth of the growth over multiple sectors is crucial to a solid economy.

Yet while the overall numbers are difficult to put into perspective in a county of some 450,000 people, a little context for the depth to which the economy had sunk is available. From February 2008 to February 2010 — the nadir of the Great Recession — Clark County lost 10,000 jobs. Since then it has recovered about 9,300 positions, or 93 percent. The growth has been solid, yet we still aren’t back to pre-recession levels, a harsh reminder of just how sour the downturn was.

“Since the recession began, the county’s population has grown, and there are roughly 21,000 more working-age adults,” Bailey wrote in his report. “We’d expect, in a normal economy, about 14,000 of them to be in the labor force. So while the county is very close to getting back to where it was when things headed south in February 2008, it is still well short of where it needs to be.”

And still, there are glimmers of hope.

Clark County is adding jobs; local home prices are rising at a steady, healthy pace; home sales are improving. The large economic indicators that affect everyday residents provide reason for cautious optimism.

That’s not to say everything is milk and honey and rainbows. One of the problems with the recovering economy is that the jobs being created are disproportionately near the bottom of the wage scale. In July, for example, 65 percent of the jobs created nationally were part-time positions. Underemployment remains a problem, with displaced full-time workers settling for part-time positions or college graduates taking low-paying jobs. Until the quality of jobs improves, until family-wage jobs become the norm rather than the exception, the recovery will continue to be built upon a shaky foundation.

Nationally, the economy is inching toward trying to stand on its own. The Federal Reserve has announced plans to begin scaling back bond-buying programs, which economists say have assisted with the slow-but-steady recovery. The policy change might demonstrate whether the economy is ready to begin taking baby steps on its own, but the feds should hover close in case it begins to teeter.

Locally, while Clark County is showing signs of growth, the area remains inextricably linked to the Portland economy, and that is cause for concern. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Portland area has lost jobs each of the past three months. Gains in Clark County could be hampered if the Portland economy continues to struggle.

But, for now, there is some reason for hope. Here’s to a slightly brighter 2014 after several years of darkness.

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