Timm: Forecast a mixed bag, but snow seems unlikely for ski areas

As far as mountain snow goes we have good news, bad news and maybe some delayed good news.

The first round of good news is that some snow will fall in the 4,000- to 6,000-foot range — maybe 6 inches to a foot above 6,000 feet today through early Saturday.

The pending bad news is that 4-8 inches of warm rain over the weekend will wash it away. Depending on where the atmospheric river sets up we could see 2-4 inches of rain here in Clark County. There may be some flooding issues around the Northwest.

The remaining good news, if it materializes, is that some forecast models are still indicating a colder northerly flow of air beginning Christmas Eve. That could bring a little mountain snow. This flow is usually dry so I wouldn’t expect enough mountain snow to keep the ski areas up and running for Christmas Day. But it at least may open the door for some sticking snow.

Would it snow down to city levels? Probably not. Any moisture would be snow down below the passes and the foothills above 1,000 feet. Things could change but there is no definite chance of a white Christmas here in the lowlands. We are just a week away now from the holiday and usually we have a pretty good idea from medium-range forecast models. Things are still iffy on just where high pressure sets up and if we get a cool flow from the north or a cold flow.

I feel really bad for all those who make their living on the mountain snowpack during the winter season. Mount Bachelor is the only place things are running, but even there, the snowpack is only 2 feet or so.

Patrick Timm is a local weather specialist. His column appears Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays. Reach him at patricktimm.com.