BEIJING — Two months after China declared an “air defense identification zone” off its coast that rattled Japan and other neighbors, tensions in the region continue to rise, along with the risk of a maritime mishap that could escalate into a full-blown military conflict.
A close call occurred last month when a Chinese military vessel nearly collided with a U.S. guided-missile cruiser, the Cowpens, as the Navy ship was observing China’s new aircraft carrier, which was operating in the area.
This month, China’s Hainan Province issued new regulations that require foreign fishing vessels to obtain permission from the government before casting their nets in parts of the South China Sea that Beijing claims. Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan protested the edict, seeing it as a threat to their food security and an attempt by China to claim nearly the entire South China Sea as its own.
Then, last Sunday, three Chinese government ships briefly entered waters near a set of disputed islands claimed by both Japan and China, called the Senkaku in Japan and the Diaoyu in China, that have long been a source of conflict.
Analysts say both countries are escalating their rhetoric partly because of domestic political calculations. Neither Chinese President Xi Jinping nor Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wants to appear soft at home in dealing with a historic adversary, a perceived weakness that could undermine their respective economic agendas.
“On China’s part, there is clearly a long-term strategy to gradually strengthen Chinese claims in both the East China Sea and the South China Sea,” said Denny Roy, a senior fellow in the research program at the East-West Center in Honolulu, Hawaii. He says Beijing is trying to establish “control” of the area — a concept recognized by modern international law — and also send a signal that other nations “should wise up and negotiate settlements on China’s terms.”
On Japan’s part, he said, Abe wants to make clear he will not be pressured into making a major concession to China. Last Sunday, the Japanese military conducted a war game named “Island Defense,” in which troops simulated the retaking of a remote island from a foreign power.
Roy said he’s watching to see if Japan might take a further step that would force China to fight or back down.
“Putting Japanese security personnel on one of the Senkaku Islands would be such a step,” he said.
Even the most minor military exchange in the region has the potential to roil U.S.-Chinese relations and international commerce. The shipping lanes of the South and East China Seas are vital to China’s trade with the world and to obtaining the raw materials it needs to sustain its economy. Japan’s and China’s economies are interlinked in so many ways that many Asia watchers doubt their rhetoric will escalate into an air or naval battle.
Still, with all of the military vessels, submarines, coast guard cruisers and fishing boats floating around the East and South China seas, risk of an accident looms. In 2010, a clash between Japanese coast guard boats and a Chinese fishing trawler near the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands set off a diplomatic storm, prompting Chinese rallies against purchases of Japanese cars and other products.
