County’s red side is on the rise after election

In the wake of Tuesday’s election, Clark County’s political leadership is as conservative as it’s ever been, with Republicans picking up seats formerly held by Democrats.

Across the nation and in Southwest Washington, the Republican strategy worked. That was evident in Clark County, where Republicans outnumber Democrats and worked hard to get out the vote.

They micro-targeted voters and then made sure to get their message across.

“Republicans got better at their ground game this election,” said Carolyn Long, a political scientist at WSU Vancouver. Three examples:

• Republican state House candidate Lynda Wilson, the former county GOP chairwoman, beat incumbent Rep. Monica Stonier, D-Vancouver, in what was seen as a “swing” district in east Vancouver.

• Clark County commissioner candidate Craig Pridemore, a Democrat, conceded Friday to Jeanne Stewart. He led on election night, but the late votes went Stewart’s way.

• Shane Gardner, a nonpartisan candidate with the backing of Democrats, acknowledged defeat to Republican Chuck Atkins in the sheriff’s race on Thursday. Gardner said he felt uncomfortable conceding before all the ballots had been counted but felt it wasn’t likely he could make up the vote differential.

“While mathematically possible, I don’t think it probable,” he said.

Republicans joined another group that fared well this election cycle: incumbents.

Despite partisan gridlock’s making headlines and polls showing disgruntled voters, Southwest Washington incumbents had a great election. Besides Stonier, the only other incumbent turned out of office was nonpartisan public utility commissioner Byron Hanke. And he lost to Jane Van Dyke, who had served more years on the Clark Public Utilities board than he has.

Incumbents tend to do well when voter turnout is low; in Clark County this year, barely half of the voters bothered to fill out their ballots.

“If the electorate expanded, you would see very different results, but you’re seeing the same results because you’re looking at the same voters,” Long said.

And while money became a campaign issue on the local level, particularly in the hotly contested commissioner race, spending for individual candidates didn’t reach record levels.

Stewart, a former Vancouver city councilwoman who was defeated by Alishia Topper last year, initially relied on traditional grass-roots efforts in her campaign. She used voter data, broken down by precinct, to target would-be voters.

But when Stewart, trailing Pridemore in money, received an $89,000 infusion of capital down the stretch, Democrats cried foul. They said it appeared that some of the money that Madore and apartment developer Clyde Holland contributed to the state Republican Party was earmarked for Stewart’s campaign, a violation of finance laws. She used the money to buy television advertising.

Pridemore declined to file a complaint with the state’s Public Disclosure Commission, saying all he had was circumstantial evidence of wrongdoing. Former state Sen. Al Bauer, a Democrat, did file a complaint, which the disclosure commission is currently processing.

By the time the election ended, Stewart had raised $139,075 to Pridemore’s $114,169.

Still, neither candidate raised or spent a tremendous amount of money by historical standards.

Even before Republican David Madore raised more than $331,000 for his 2012 campaign — much of it his own money — dollars had flowed liberally to local campaigns. Democratic candidates have often been on the receiving end of large donations, counter to national trends.

Few blinked when wealthy investment adviser David Nierenberg contributed $15,000 to Democrat Steve Stuart’s 2006 campaign for county commissioner. In that race, Stuart racked up $260,034 in contributions for a position that paid roughly $102,000 per year.

In 2012’s other county commissioner race, Democrat Joe Tanner raised $240,127 in his losing campaign against Republican incumbent Tom Mielke, a longtime north county politician who raised less than $25,000. Per vote, Tanner spent $2.83, compared with Mielke’s 27 cents.

The reason for the dollar disparity has to do with the demographic breakdown of the county, said Jim Mains, a campaign consultant.

“Our county is about 52 percent GOP,” said Mains, who has been politically active in Clark County for a decade. “So Democrats have to work hard and spend a ton.”

If the pendulum is swinging to the right, many view Madore as one of the people responsible. He spent freely in 2012, primarily on his own campaign, and continued to do so in 2014.

That’s a frightening sign for Democrats, who may have trouble matching big-money donations moving forward.

“(When) any individual is willing to spend that much money to influence the outcome of an election, we should all be concerned,” said Mains, who works with both Republican and Democratic candidates.

Right move?

Despite the Republican victories, Long doesn’t see the local GOP success as a sign that the region is becoming more conservative. Instead, she thinks it’s more likely a testament to what played out on the national scene. Members of the U.S. president’s party tend to lose seats in a midterm election, and Clark County also reflects the ongoing urban-rural divide. Those who live in rural and suburban areas tend to vote more conservatively than those who live in the city.

“Nationally, Republicans had a great day on Tuesday and that trend really affected the election overall … I’m cautious to come to the conclusion that we’ve suddenly become quite red in Southwest Washington,” she said.

Even Rep. Stonier, who was turned out of office after one term, said she still believes the 17th Legislative District should be considered a swing district.

“I honestly believe that if people who are registered to vote cast their ballots, it wouldn’t look like that,” Stonier said. “It’s a matter of who is casting their ballots, it’s not a matter of who is in the district.”

Clark County GOP Chair Kenny Smith said it’s also a nod to solid candidates.

“We had a candidate in every race, great candidates in every race,” Smith said.

After this election, the GOP will have control of the state Senate and will have likely picked up a few seats in the House, including Stonier’s.

For the first time in decades, three Republicans could sit on the board of county commissioners — an intriguing possibility, considering a home rule charter will change the structure of local government in 2015, much to the chagrin of local Republican Party leadership.

Rep. Jim Moeller, D-Vancouver, who holds the second-most-powerful position in the state House, said Wilson’s win will mean “one less vote for revenue.”

Moeller is a proponent of raising taxes to solve one of the biggest issues facing the state Legislature: how to adequately fund public schools in light of a Supreme Court decision ordering the state to do so.

He also noted Stonier, who works as a teacher coach, brought a certain expertise and perspective to the statehouse that will be missed.

Closely divided statehouses, however, are often good for democracy.

“We have examples of the parties’ working together on issues and it’s much more likely with closely divided statehouses rather than lopsided chambers,” Long said.

A lot of money was poured into Senate races in particular this election cycle, with the hopes that a Democratic majority would help Gov. Jay Inslee pass his ambitious climate-change initiatives.

California billionaire Tom Steyer, who is working to pass climate-change legislation in statehouses across the country, funneled money into several Washington Senate races.

Despite the governor’s hope that he would have a Democratically controlled Senate to help back his priorities, he said he’s remaining optimistic and will soon be meeting with Republican leadership.

“I think there ought to be a bipartisan recognition that we do need to make an investment in our children’s education,” Inslee told TVW recently. “There certainly ought to be a recognition now that traffic is strangling us and we need to move forward in transportation. We have needs around the state for some infrastructure and I think those should be and ultimately will be bipartisan recognitions.”

Charter’s effects

Within Clark County, the X-factor in the election is the passage of a home rule charter. The transition begins Jan. 1. It aims to revamp county governance by weakening some of the administrative authority of the elected county board, to be known as councilors.

If the county Republicans took one loss Tuesday, the charter would be it. Considered a response to Mielke and Madore, who are perceived by some to have exerted more control over day-to-day operations than previous commissioners, the charter was denounced by the local Republican Party, even as it received bipartisan support.

“Even though the vote on the charter should have been primarily about county government organization,” Long said, “inevitably voters tied the charter to the current board of commissioners and it could be interpreted as a referendum on those county commissioners.”

The charter calls for adding two councilors, including a chairperson. Those elections will take place next year. But with Stewart’s election, Republicans already know they’ll hold a majority on that council.

Other changes are more than a year away as well.

They include the hiring of a permanent county manager. That won’t happen until all five county councilors take office in 2016. Until then, an interim county manager will handle the executive functions of county government, much like a city manager oversees city employees and their activities.

Looking toward the future, charter supporters, including Mains, say they see it resulting in good changes.

Mains said: “Another reason the charter helps smaller areas (is), districts can elect someone without spending a lot of money.”

And that could benefit both Republicans and Democrats.