OLYMPIA — A ballot initiative that would expand background checks on all firearm sales and transfers in Washington state has lost some support in the past few months but still has a lead over another measure that would prevent any such expansion, according to a new poll released Monday.
Independent pollster Stuart Elway says support for both measures dipped since his last poll in July. Elway’s latest survey indicated that 60 percent of voters were inclined to vote for universal background checks, down from 70 percent in July and 72 percent in April.
Geoff Potter, a spokesman for Initiative 594, said the poll signals that the measure is “still strongly positioned for victory” in the Nov. 4 election.
“But it does highlight the fact that this will be a fight to the finish,” he said.
Supporters of background checks have raised nearly $8 million, with large donations from several prominent people, including Microsoft co-founders Bill Gates and Paul Allen. Those opposed to expanded checks have raised just over $1 million.
Elway’s poll says 39 percent were inclined to vote to prevent Washington state from adopting background-check laws stricter than the national standard, which requires checks for sales by licensed dealers but not for purchases from private sellers. Initiative 591 also prohibits confiscation of firearms without due process. Previous surveys indicated 46 percent supported the measure in July, and 55 percent did so in April.
The poll says 22 percent of voters were inclined to vote for both measures, down from 32 percent in July.
“Support for Washington’s competing gun initiatives appears to be settling as voters continue to learn more about them,” Elway wrote.
The Washington secretary of state’s office has said that either the Legislature or the courts would have to sort it out if both measures were to pass.
The latest Elway survey of 500 registered voters was conducted by phone Oct. 6-9. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. Fifty-five percent of those surveyed were considered “likely” or “perfect” voters; 45 percent had zero to two votes in the last four elections.
Alan Gottlieb, chairman of the Citizens Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms, which is the main proponent of the anti-background check measure, questioned the validity of Elway’s poll.
Gottlieb said the large percentage of “registered” voters compared with “likely” voters doesn’t accurately reflect who will actually mail back their ballots and weigh in on the measures.
“That poll to me doesn’t hold much weight with me because it doesn’t really reflect who’s going to show up at the polls,” he said. “I wouldn’t even have faith that the other side dropped 10 points either.”
Ballots will be sent to the state’s 3.9 million registered voters starting Wednesday.
