<img height="1" width="1" style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=192888919167017&amp;ev=PageView&amp;noscript=1">
Monday, March 18, 2024
March 18, 2024

Linkedin Pinterest

In Our View: Travel Transformed

State study predicting drop in vehicle miles doesn\u2019t put brakes on road needs

The Columbian
Published:

Let’s start with an answer to the obvious question: No, a new study by the Washington State Department of Transportation does not mitigate the need for a replacement — or a major upgrade — for the Interstate 5 Bridge. That span is and will continue to be a drag on the economy of the entire West Coast, even if there is a long-term decline in the amount of traffic that crosses it each day.

That being said, the study completed last month by state transportation officials could greatly alter how Washington approaches decisions that will resonate for decades or for generations. The study concluded that there will be a long-term decline in vehicle miles traveled, with a steady drop continuing until at least 2043. As Clark Williams-Derry, deputy director of Seattle-based think tank Sightline Institute, said: “It really is a sea change in how the state is looking at future traffic trends. I think it’s a healthy change.”

For years, the state’s annual traffic projections have predicted a steady increase. This makes sense, as nobody is expecting a population decline, and more people tend to create more traffic. But the new projection embraces a reality that has been unearthed by other studies across the nation: Young people of driving age, the so-called millennial generation, are driving less than their forebears did at the same age. As The Washington Post’s Wonkblog wrote earlier this month: “They’re less likely to get driver’s licenses. They tend to take fewer car trips, and when they do, those trips are shorter. They’re also more likely than older generations to get around by alternative means: By foot, by bike, or by transit.”

There are many reasons for this, among them an economy that has hampered young adults in recent years and has made car ownership less affordable. There is the social engineering that has taken place in major cities over the past four decades, with an emphasis on mass transportation. There is the fact that young adults have no memory of consistently inexpensive gasoline. And there is the fact that millennials are more likely to view such mass transportation as an enhancement to their freedom — allowing, for example, the time to check email or connect with friends through social media — rather than something that limits their freedom. A study commissioned last year by Zipcar, for example, found that a vast majority of millenials say losing their phone would be a greater hardship than losing their car.

Whatever the reasons, there is some logic behind the state Department of Transportation’s conclusion that miles driven will decline in the coming decades. But it should be pointed out that just one year ago, the annual study predicted steady gains in traffic miles — and the abrupt about-face highlights the precariousness of basing public policy on studies that can be fickle. It also should be pointed out that Washington’s transportation and infrastructure needs have not dissipated simply because of one government study. As mentioned, the I-5 Bridge should remain a priority; the dollars that are lost through delays in freight transportation alone demonstrate the dire need for improvement through that corridor. Certain other projects across the state also are necessary because of the economic benefits they would provide.

Yet the notion of transportation and Americans’ love affair with their cars seems to be changing. That will have a long-term impact in terms of gas-tax revenue and vehicle registration revenue, altering the needs for transportation funding and having a large effect on the economy. The needs aren’t going away, but they are being transformed.

Loading...