Brent: Hospitality industry can feed county growth
New restaurant businesses and skilled workers part of overall economic, employment picture
The Columbian
Published: January 21, 2015, 4:00pm
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The Grocery Cocktail & Social on Seventh and Washington streets in downtown Vancouver is one of the new restaurants that are adding to the city's attractiveness as a leisure destination.
I am bullish on the hospitality industry in Clark County. I expect to see the number of eating and drinking establishments grow by 15 to 20 in the next year. Recent openings of Willem’s on Main and The Grocery Cocktail & Social in downtown Vancouver are very encouraging to me. Both establishments were startups created by folks with experience from the other side of the river.
In my 35 years of experience in restaurants, I have found that we in our industry are the bellwethers of economic cycles. In 2008, I was working in a downtown Portland restaurant when I overheard that a few of the executive chefs of major hotel properties were summarily fired on Thanksgiving weekend. It turned out that many banks, financial institutions and other business canceled their holiday parties at these fancy hotels, forfeiting their deposits. The hospitality industry in downtown Portland lost millions of dollars of booked revenues in the month of December of that year alone. Our local hotels experienced similar trends that fateful year.
Typically, high-end restaurants are the first to get hit and take the biggest hit in sales, then as consumers trade down to casual and casual trades down to fast food. The converse also is true. When the economy improves, high-end restaurants experience the largest sales gain, then casual. Sometimes fast-food sales take a hit in a good economy as consumers trade back up.
A survey conducted by the National Restaurant Association, based on 30 responses, found that 60 percent of those Washington restaurants had higher sales in September 2013 compared to a year earlier, and 40 percent reported lower sales. Despite the improvement for a majority of restaurants in the survey, Washington appears to lag behind the nation in sales increases. The national survey found 63 percent of surveyed restaurants reported higher sales while 23 percent reported lower sales and 4 percent said sales were about the same. The same survey found 23 percent of the Washington restaurants expected lower sales in the next six months, compared to 8 percent in the national survey.
Here in Southwest Washington, we are seeing strong signs of growth in the restaurant sector. A few years ago at the Economic Forecast Breakfast, Kim Bennett, president of the Vancouver USA Regional Tourism Office, was asked how we could stop the sales leakage going to Portland. Her response was: “Open better restaurants.”
We are doing just that.
Our Mill Creek Pub opened three years ago in Battle Ground, and it has seen double-digit growth each year.
Washington State Department of Revenue data shows a steady increase in restaurant sales revenue in our region. Year over year growth has been steadily increasing between 3 percent and 6 percent. The five-year trend is up 23 percent from 2009. The number of operating eating and drinking establishments had gone from 682 to 738 since 2009.
As the industry grows, we face a need for skilled workers. I have been on the advisory board for the culinary program at the Clark County Skills Center for several years. It has always frustrated me that we have not been successful in keeping talent in Clark County. The question is, “How do we get these students to stay or come back to our community?” I am hopeful that Washington State University Vancouver’s new Hospitality and Business Management program will provide a career path that may lead to talent remaining in our community.
Creating a strong workforce and a center of expertise at Clark College could attract new restaurant business to Clark County. If Clark County could get restaurant penetration levels up to that of Multnomah County, Ore., which is 250 percent higher than Clark County’s per capita rate, we would create 5,900 new restaurant jobs.
If we could reach Multnomah County’s levels, with a comparable increase in restaurant employment, our unemployment numbers would dip by almost 2.9 percent, putting us below Washington state levels. This won’t happen immediately, but it highlights the impact a strong restaurant development and workforce training program could have for our employment.
Russell Brent is founder and owner of Mill Creek Pub in Battle Ground.
