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NOAA predicts slow hurricane season

The Columbian
Published: May 26, 2015, 5:00pm

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. – Joining other weather teams, government forecasters on Wednesday called for a slower-than-normal hurricane season, adding fuel to the debate over whether the 20-year era of tropical intensity is finally drawing to an end.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts six to 12 named storms, including three to six hurricanes.

“That doesn’t mean Mother Nature isn’t going throw some pitches at us,” said NOAA Administrator Kathryn Sullivan, who noted the forecast makes no attempt to say where storms might hit.

In April, Phil Klotzbach and William Gray of Colorado State University called for seven named storms; AccuWeather predicts eight named storms while Tropical Storm Risk forecasts 11. The average six-month season produces 12 named storms, including six hurricanes.

All cite the emergence of El Nino, the large-scale weather pattern that suppresses storm formation by creating strong wind shear in the upper atmosphere for their predictions. Additionally, the tropical Atlantic waters are about normal.

None of the teams say the era of tropical intensity, which tends to produce more hurricanes and more powerful ones each year, is at play.

Some climatic experts say while the atmospheric conditions that fuel storms might be shifting toward a quieter phase, it would take at least three quiet storms seasons in a row for them to be convinced the intensity era is over.

So far, there have been two: 2013 saw only two Category 1 hurricanes; 2014 saw eight named storms, although six were hurricanes.

Klotzbach said cooler waters in tropical areas of the Atlantic combined with the past two relatively slow hurricane seasons “lend increased credence to the discussion that we may be ending the active era.”

Tom Philp, science analyst for XL Catlin Group, associated with Lloyd’s of London, said because some atmospheric signals indicate the tropics are becoming less active, the intensity era could potentially be shutting down.

“It shouldn’t be ruled out,” he said.

But Gerry Bell, NOAA’s lead hurricane forecaster, said the two main components that energize the intensity era – Atlantic sea surface temperatures and heavy rains in west Africa – show no signs of letting up.

Dan Kottlowski, senior meteorologist for the online weather site AccuWeather, said there can be slow stretches within an intensity era and scientists likely won’t know the era has ended until it actually has been over for a few years.

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He expects the current era to continue at least through 2020 because an intensity era usually lasts for 25 to 35 years, and we’re now in year 20 of the existing era.

“In a nutshell, we are expecting Atlantic sea surface temperatures to remain warmer than normal this season and probably for the next few years,” he said.

The current intensity era started in 1995 and of the 20 seasons since, 14 have been busy or extremely active, including tumultuous 2004 and 2005. In 2012, the most recent busy season, there were 10 hurricanes, including calamitous Sandy.

Most scientists believe the era is the result of a natural cycle of warming and cooling in the Atlantic and that it can switch from a warm to a cool phase within a matter of one or two years.

Yet, even in a cool phase, powerful hurricanes can develop, as was the case with Category 5 Hurricane Andrew, which hit South Florida in 1992, an otherwise calm period.

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