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Tropical wave threatens flooding in South Florida, forecasters say

Messy system fails to organize around a defined eye so far

By Jenny Staletovich, Miami Herald (TNS)
Published: August 25, 2016, 9:50pm

MIAMI — Regardless of whether a tropical wave threatening South Florida actually musters the strength to become a more fierce storm, forecasters say the region is in for a soggy, wet weekend, with possible flooding. The wave weakened slightly Thursday afternoon as it continued to encounter crippling wind shear. But forecasters say there’s still a chance it could find footing in warm waters over the Bahamas and make a powerful landfall in South Florida and the Keys.

“The problem it’s had is a combination of dry air and wind shear. And those are two enemies of a tropical cyclone trying to develop,” said National Hurricane Center spokesman Dennis Feltgen. “It’s been fortunate we don’t have something forming.”

Thursday afternoon, a hurricane hunter plane found the storm no longer packed tropical storm force winds as it pushed through the southeastern Bahamas. The messy system had failed to organize around a defined eye, surrounded by a tangle of thunderstorms. Forecasters also scaled back earlier projections, dropping the odds from an 80 percent to 70 percent chance of a tropical storm forming in five days.

So what could South Florida see? If, and that’s still an uncertain if, no storm forms, heavy rain will still likely drench the state.

“It may not be an all-day rain, but a pretty wet weekend, like a 60 to 70 percent,” said National Weather Service senior meteorologist Stephen Konarik.

Rip currents will also likely churn up beaches, creating dangerous conditions for swimmers, he said.

Even with the slight weakening, preparation around the state continued with officials worried that a rapidly intensifying storm would provide little time to issue watches and warning usually issued days in advance.

Florida Power & Light activated its emergency response plan and began getting workers in place and securing extra help from out of state if needed. Even with aggressive efforts to clear trees and brush, a decade without a hurricane could lead to heavy outages from lines downed by vegetation, said president Eric Silagy.

“Given this could be Mother Nature’s first wholesale clearing effort in more than a decade due to a relative lack of tropical weather, we fully anticipate whole trees and excess debris, such as branches and palm fronds, to cause power outages,” he said in a statement.

Across the Caribbean, the storm was leaving a messy trail. The National Meteorological Office in the Dominican Republic issued urban flooding and flash-flood warnings. Because of high winds and waves, the office also advised small and medium boats along the northern part of the island and the Mona Channel coast to remain in port.

Port-Au-Prince, Haiti, reported wet and dreary conditions but no dangerous flooding. Islands nearest the storm in the Bahamas had also so far escaped any severe weather, Capt. Stephen Russell, the head of the Bahamas’ National Emergency Management Agency, said.

While the path and intensity is still unclear, The South Florida Water Management District, still wrestling with soggy conditions from record winter rain, also began lowering water levels in Miami-Dade and Broward County conservation areas and prepping canals, pumps and other flood-control features. Staff also checked to ensure pumps had enough fuel to power increased pumping.

Over the summer, the district upped the amount of water it moved into the southern Everglades, raising canal levels along the Tamiami Trail. But the vast conservation areas failed to recede to levels the district normally maintains in advance of the wet season. Staff also began inspecting key parts of the system and made sure pumps had plenty of fuel.

Further north, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers so far has no plans to begin flushing more water from Lake Okeechobee to protect the lake’s aging dike. But that could quickly change, bringing unwelcome dirty water to coastal estuaries still recovering from algae blooms that coated the St. Lucie River and Indian River Lagoon with smelly toxic slime over the summer. Dangerous toxin levels have since dropped, according to the Florida Department of Environmental Protection, but testing continues.

“We will continue releases at current rates with the understanding we may need to adjust flows depending on what happens with the weather over the next few days,” acting Operations Division Chief Candida Bronson said in a statement.

In recent days, lake levels have been dropping and Thursday stood at 14.67 feet.

Gov. Rick Scott also issued a statement urging residents to get ready in advance, talked with the state’s Emergency Management chief and, with the storm’s arrival possibly disrupting Tuesday’s election, pushed early voting.

“In Florida, we must always be prepared for a storm before landfall,” he said.

While no watches or warnings have been issued, forecasters say parts of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and central Bahamas should be on the lookout for flash floods and mudslides triggered by heavy rain and winds during the next couple of days.

Forecasters are also keeping an eye on Gaston far to the east, which weakened from a hurricane overnight to a tropical storm. Located more than 1,100 miles east, northeast of the Leeward Islands, winds dropped to about 70 mph as the storm moved northwestward at 17 mph, forecasters reported at 11 a.m. Gaston could rekindle over the weekend but is expected to turn north and stay far off the U.S. coast.

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