Who will win: In “Room,” Abrahamson worked wonders with both his lead actors, and handled a horrifying subject with remarkable sensitivity. In “Short,” McKay made the complicated subject of financial collapse not just comprehensive but compelling. Still, others struggled more for their art. A steady, principled McCarthy gave us one of the best portraits of journalism ever, but will Oscar forgive him for having written and directed Adam Sandler’s “The Cobbler” the same year? Inarritu endured reshoots, obsessive method actors and snowstorms to make the audacious “The Revenant.” But he won last year (for “Birdman”), so a repeat is doubtful. I suspect the Academy will honor Miller, a highly respected industry veteran who brought new vitality to not just a franchise but a genre.
Who should win: Miller. His “Mad” vision will become a classic.
BEST ACTOR
The nominees: Bryan Cranston, “Trumbo;” Matt Damon, “The Martian;” Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant;” Michael Fassbender, “Steve Jobs;” Eddie Redmayne, “The Danish Girl”
Who will win: Cranston was a fireplug as blacklisted author Dalton Trumbo, but he didn’t stretch much. As a music-loving astronaut saddled on Mars, the charming Damon made us care about his fate. As the iconic Jobs, Fassbender made Aaron Sorkin’s meaty screenplay sing. While Redmayne was eloquent as a man undergoing a gender reassignment surgery, he won last year. So to no one’s surprise, it’s DiCaprio’s year. As a vengeance-seeking frontiersman who survives a bear attack and other cruelties, both man-made and in nature, he will win. After all, he did eat real, raw bison liver.
Who should win: For a career Oscar, I’d love to see the award go to Leo. He’s been robbed of Oscar gold before, with his terrific performances in “Shutter Island” and “The Wolf of Wall Street” for starters. But for this year’s best performance? Come to the podium, Damon. It’s unfortunate he’ll be dismissed for delivering a “light” performance, because without his genial presence, Ridley Scott’s film would have been utterly lost in space.