Iowa and New Hampshire together have just 1.4 percent of the U.S. population, which is actually why it is fine for them to begin the presidential selection process: Small states reward an underdog’s retail politics. Chris Christie relishes such politics and has fresh evidence that voters are enjoying his enjoyment.
Speaking recently by phone from his home away from home, New Hampshire, he said: “People have remembered why they liked me in the first place.” His saturation campaigning there has produced a 55-point reversal of his favorable/unfavorable rating in the Granite State, from 16 points more unfavorable than favorable to 39 points more favorable than unfavorable. According to last week’s Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll, Christie’s favorability number in Iowa is 51 percent, up from 29 percent in August, when his unfavorability number was 59 percent.
Nationally, among all the Republican candidates, the ABC/Washington Post poll finds Christie’s favorability rating “most improved,” from 35 percent last spring to 53 percent today. He gained among conservatives (23 points), among Republicans generally (18) and independents (14). The latter matters because, as David W. Brady of Stanford and the Hoover Institution wrote last week in The Wall Street Journal:
“The arithmetic is pretty simple: 41 percent of voters in the 2012 presidential election described themselves as moderates, and 29 percent as independents. Almost all Republicans (93 percent) and self-described conservatives (82 percent) voted for Mitt Romney, but that wasn’t enough. Even if Mr. Romney had won every Republican or conservative voter, it still wouldn’t have been enough. Because there are roughly 5 percent more Democrats than Republicans, the GOP needs a solid majority of independents to win a national election. In 2012, Mitt Romney outpolled Barack Obama among independents, 50 percent to 45 percent. But that didn’t take him across the Electoral College finish line.”