First, a look back: my 2015 forecast for Clark County was for continued strong job growth. I thought that single-family housing construction would strengthen but remain below historic averages. I believed manufacturing would do well, with exceptions (transportation equipment), and that retail trade, professional and business services, and health care would all expand employment at a rapid rate. And that’s pretty much what happened.
Looking ahead: the state forecaster expects that the national economy in 2016 will not be all that much different from 2015. While GDP is expected to grow at a slightly faster rate, employment growth is expected to slow. The world economy is also predicted to grow at a slower clip — that and the high value of the dollar have already impacted exporters in the Pacific Northwest. The Fed has signaled its intention to continue with several small increases in the interest rate. On the positive side, oil prices will likely stay low and housing starts will continue to recover.
That theme of generally slower growth continues on down to the state level. Washington’s economy is very sensitive to the world market. In the second quarter of 2015, non-aerospace exports were down 17 percent year-over-year. The official state forecast calls for employment growth of 1.7 percent, down from 2.7 percent in 2015, with manufacturing losing jobs and construction employment barely increasing. Personal income is predicted to expand by 3.5 percent, versus 5 percent this past year.
The latest forecast for Oregon, in contrast, continually invokes the phrase “full throttle,” and predicts another year of strong growth in production and employment. I think the optimistic forecast for Oregon is more appropriate for Clark County.