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Oregon job growth cooling off, tax revenue slowing down

By ANDREW SELSKY, Associated Press
Published: November 16, 2016, 12:58pm

SALEM, Ore. — Oregon’s job growth has cooled down, and as a consequence growth in personal income taxes the state collects has also slowed, the state said Wednesday in its economic and revenue forecast.

Even if the job growth had continued at its former pace, Oregon would have faced a large budget shortfall. And that’s what Gov. Kate Brown focused on in her response to the revenue forecast.

“On the positive side, job growth is higher and unemployment is lower than the national average and Oregon’s economy remains stable overall,” Brown said. “However, our obligations to fund important services such as public education and health care still exceed available revenues, and, looking ahead, there will be some very tough budget choices to make.”

Brown’s communications director, Kristen Grainger, said the governor will propose a balanced budget on Dec. 1, and that it will accommodate the revenue shortfall. That shortfall was approximately $1.3 billion before the election but with the fiscal impact of ballot measures that passed, it is now closer to $1.7 billion, Grainger said in an email.

That budget shortfall comes from increased health-care costs, including the state’s share of the cost to implement the Affordable Care Act after federal funds for start-up vanish; the fiscal impact of 2016 ballot measures that specify and redirect state spending; and Oregon’s Public Employee Retirement System unfunded liability, Grainger said.

A remedy to the shortfall that Brown backed — Measure 97, that would have brought in billions in taxes — was rejected in the Nov. 8 election.

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