KABUL, Afghanistan — The last time Afghanistan held national elections, in 2014, the result was a disaster. So widespread were charges of fraud and so tainted was the outcome that the country reached the brink of civil war. Secretary of State John F. Kerry finally intervened, forcing the two main contenders to form a temporary government that has been wracked by internal divisions ever since.
In the wake of that debacle, elaborate efforts were made to avoid repeating it. Electoral reforms were proposed, debated and passed. Biometric voter-identification cards and electronic balloting methods were studied and tested. Discredited electoral officials were replaced. Finally a date was set: July 2018 for parliamentary elections, followed by a presidential contest.
But with the vote still eight months away, preparations have become poisoned by charges of political manipulation, ethnic bias, technical incompetence and endless delay. If the election falls apart, many Afghans fear that both the viability of their new democracy and the confidence of their international supporters will be in jeopardy.
“We still have not been able to build an effective democratic system. Every time we have an election, we have to reinvent it,” said Naeem Ayubzada, director of the Transparent Election Foundation of Afghanistan, an independent watchdog group. “The process has lost all credibility, but this election is the last card we can play. If we fail, we will lose everything we have worked for in the past 16 years.”
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and his aides insist that the parliamentary vote will take place as planned, though some concede the date may slip. They are desperate to preserve the aid that pays for much of the national budget and defense, and foreign donors view credible elections as a litmus test for future support.
But the longer elections are postponed, the longer both the executive and legislative branches will remain in legal limbo and political disarray. The national unity government’s mandate expired last year, and the current parliament’s term has been extended twice since elections were supposed to take place two years ago.
The absence of institutional legitimacy has opened the door to a frenzy of pre-election backbiting, strong-arming and finger-pointing by self-interested leaders. They include familiar names from past ethnic and political battles, disgruntled defectors from the Ghani government and founders of new political parties – some barely more than a leader and his best friends.
This phenomenon has become so destructive that in October, a surprisingly broad array of political groups, from former communists to conservative Islamists, formed a coalition and demanded that the government take solid steps to hold fair and transparent elections. They warned that unless a credible power transition takes place, the country could collapse.
“Nobody wants to go back to chaos. There is a great fear of a crisis like 2014 or worse, and this time no one would trust a Kerry kind of deal,” said Rahmatullah Nabil, a former national intelligence chief who spearheaded the coalition and heads a new political party. “The government is weak, there is no balance of political forces, and the regional situation has totally changed. If we have another election like 2014, no one will be able to control it.”
