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Looking at WIAA use of RPI, warts and all

Commentary: Tim Martinez

By Tim Martinez, Columbian Assistant Sports Editor
Published: January 8, 2017, 9:48pm

Have you ever looked at a recipe and thought “That looks good”?

But then you follow the recipe, and it doesn’t turn out as well as you thought.

Sometimes it’s the recipe. Sometimes it’s the cook.

Last week, we talked about the WIAA’s recipe for seeding teams into its state basketball tournaments this season — the Ratings Percentage Index or RPI.

On Friday, the WIAA pulled the first batch of RPI rankings out of the oven, and some of the results didn’t turn out like you might have thought.

When the WIAA adopted this format last year, it knew that there were issues that needed to be resolved.

But instead of waiting until all the issues were fixed — which could take a year or more — it decided to roll out the system as it was, warts and all.

That’s because it felt this new ranking system would be better than the previous random seeding system, and the system could be improved year by year.

So let’s take a look these rankings, some of those issues, and see what impact they might have going forward.

The first thing you need to be aware of is that these rankings are fluid. It’s not like the WIAA releases rankings at noon Friday, and then again the following Friday, and so on.

No. Every time a team inputs a new score, it causes the rankings to change. So you might see a team ranked eighth, then come back an hour later and that same team is ranked seventh.

So the rankings I mention here might have changed by the time you read this.

The RPI system also puts a lot of weight into the strength of schedule. That’s why the Union boys topped the 4A rankings with a 10-2 record over one unbeaten team and a couple of one-loss teams.

And you may think that’s fine. But it seems like the system puts a bit too much weight into strength of schedule.

Here’s an example of what I’m talking about. The Skyview boys were ranked 12th in 4A when the rankings were first released Friday afternoon. Friday night, the Storm played Union and lost 47-37.

But by Saturday morning, when the Union result was entered into the system, Skyview had jumped to No. 10 because the boost the Storm got in strength of schedule by playing No. 1 Union overrode the drop in Skyview’s winning percentage.

That seems a little odd to me.

But the strength of schedule used in this RPI ranking isn’t really measuring a team’s true strength of schedule.

That’s because the RPI system — developed to help rank college teams — doesn’t know what to do about the classifications of high school sports.

So every winning percentage is treated the same, whether it’s by a 4A team or a 1A team. And that seems to have benefitted the Kelso boys.

The Hilanders were ranked No. 5 in 3A on Saturday night, which raised a lot of eyebrows.

But Kelso’s strength of schedule received a boost from the fact the Hilanders have played five 2A teams and one 1A team in its non-league schedule — all with very good winning percentages but none measuring up to the elite teams in the state at Class 3A.

No matter. The Hilanders still get to see their strength of schedule go up.

And then there are the out-of-state opponents. The WIAA didn’t know what to do with them in their RPI system so it was decided that all out-of-state opponents would be neutered into .500 teams — whether you faced a team led by LeBron James or one led by Paul Valencia (he’s got quick hands, but, yeah, you get the point).

This is hurting the Prairie girls, who played four quality opponents in California that are being recorded as four .500 teams.

Because of that, the Falcons were ranked 13th in 3A.

Now Prairie could run the table in the 3A Greater St. Helens League — not a far-fetched thought. But even a very good winning percentage could be overrun by a weakened strength of schedule.

That’s because the other teams in the 3A GSHL ranked 41st, 44th, 52nd, 64th and 65th in 3A RPI.

So Prairie could finish 18-2 and not be one of the top-ranked teams in the state. Could the Falcons even miss out on the top 8? It’s worth watching.

Another concern people had with the system was a doubt that coaches would be diligent about posting their scores to MaxPreps, the website monitoring the RPI system.

But at least among 4A-1A teams in Southwest Washington, that issue is improving.

Last week I checked and found out the 48 boys and girls teams from 4A-1A leagues in Southwest Washington, 20 had at least one anomaly on its schedule in MaxPreps.

By Saturday, that number was down to 11. And if you didn’t count the games from Friday that had not yet been entered, it drops to six.

It’s still early, and things can change by the end of the season. And these rankings won’t help any team reach state. It will only seed them once they qualify.

The WIAA has pledged to keep working to improve the system every year.

And it appears there is work to be done.

Tim Martinez is the assistant sports editor for The Columbian. He can be reached at 360-735-4538, tim.martinez@columbian.com or follow his Twitter handle @360TMart.

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