Next month, the current economic expansion in the United States is expected to tie its third-longest period of growth, which lasted from 1982 to 1990.
How have things changed since then? How, specifically, have Oregon, Washington and Clark County changed? Can the Reagan-era boom tell us anything about the future of our present-day economy?
John Mitchell, chief economist at U.S. Bancorp for three decades, expects to dive into these and other questions at The Columbian’s 2017 Economic Forecast Breakfast on Thursday.
Mitchell said he will broadly examine national trends and home in on the Pacific Northwest economies “and lay out some of the issues: what’s likely to happen, things to watch, and what Clark County has done well,” he said.
If You Go
• What: Vision 2020: The Columbian’s 2017 Economic Forecast Preview featuring John Mitchell, former chief economist of U.S. Bancorp; Vincent Bradley, Banfield Pet Hospital; Stephen Nigro, HP Inc.’s 3D printing division; Mei Wu, SmartRG; Scott Bailey, Washington Employment Security Department; Carolyn Long, Washington State University Vancouver. Moderated by Mike Bomar, Columbia River Economic Development Council.
• When: 7 to 9:30 a.m. Thursday. Doors open 6:30 a.m.
• Where: Hilton Vancouver Washington, 301 W. Sixth St., Vancouver
• Cost: $50 per person, $500 for a table of 10. Includes sit-down breakfast.
• Information: www.columbian.com/economicforecast, 360-735-4511, or events@columbian.com
Mitchell’s presentation, as keynote speaker of the breakfast and a member of a four-person panel consisting of local business leaders, comes the day before the start of Donald Trump’s presidency. Mitchell said Trump’s anticipated shifts in trade and tax policies will reverberate for years.
“The implications are long-term,” he said. “I think there’s a tendency to think this stuff will happen real fast.”
Washington and Oregon remain among the strongest economies in the United States. Clark County itself is enjoying robust employment, with preliminary figures showing 6.9 percent unemployment in November. The housing market dipped slightly during the election season and wet weather, but remains strong.
But big changes will have big effects, Mitchell said, and they’re hard to predict. Questions remain about how a Republican-led Congress will work with Trump, a Republican who has agreed with them at times and battled them at others.
“Look at the Affordable Care Act (and its possible repeal). How’s that going to change? We don’t know. There’s a lot of uncertainty.”
Mitchell will be joined on the panel by Vincent Bradley, president and CEO of Banfield Pet Hospital; Stephen Nigro, president of HP Inc.’s 3D printing division; and Mei Wu, managing director at SmartRG. Mike Bomar, president of the Columbia River Economic Development Council, will moderate.
The panel for the gathering, which has the theme Vision 2020, will examine the next four years of jobs, housing, manufacturing and advances in technology — and the myriad ways they could impact the local economy.
Other speakers include Scott Bailey, regional economist for the Washington Employment Security Department; and political science faculty member Carolyn Long of Washington State University Vancouver.
