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Storm early warning system makes strides

Forecast program could give up to 3 hours’ notice

By KELLY P. KISSEL, Associated Press
Published: July 15, 2017, 6:00am

Researchers running highly detailed simulations using satellite images, radar and ground-based weather stations were able to predict a specific violent storm 90 minutes before it hit a western Oklahoma town and killed a man two months ago.

The National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Okla., said Friday the still-experimental forecast system could give emergency planners up to three hours’ notice of upcoming bad weather, including tornadoes. Such notice is key for hospitals, schools and other places where crowds gather.

“The theoretical groundwork was laid in the 1980s and 1990s,” said Patrick Skinner, a research meteorologist with the University of Oklahoma’s Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies. “When this project started in the late 2000s, there was some worry this wasn’t feasible. We are becoming more confident that we can do it.”

After general forecasts showed that severe weather could develop in the eastern Texas Panhandle or western Oklahoma on May 16, National Severe Storms Laboratory meteorologists in Oklahoma ran data through 36 simulations, tweaking data for each scenario.

“On May 16, we had a large number that all predicted the same evolution of a supercell. That gave us a lot of confidence,” Skinner said.

For the first time, the National Weather Service used a “Warn on Forecast” to notify emergency planners around Elk City, Okla., that tornado warnings would likely be issued later in the day.

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