County inches closer to 500,000 residents

Clark County could theoretically have half a million residents in 2020. It all hinges on how fast the county grows. Between July 2015 and July 2016, the county’s population grew to 467,018, an increase of 1.88 percent, according to newly released data from the U.S. Census.

In total, we gained an estimated 8,624 people over that one-year period. Most of our population increase continues to be from people moving here. Between 2015 and 2016, the Census estimates Clark County netted 6,169 people. That is the number of newcomers minus the number of people who moved away. The natural increase, which is births minus deaths, was 2,174 people.

If the county continues growing at that rate, 1.88 percent annually, we’ll have 503,140 residents by 2020. Clark County is the 198th fastest-growing county in the country. (There are more than 3,000 counties nationwide.) We haven’t always grown that fast, though.

Between 2010 and 2016, we grew by an average of 1.57 percent each year. That rate would put us at 497,044 people by 2020 — just shy of half a million. So, place your bets now for whether we’ll skirt over or under the half-million mark. Until the Census does its decennial survey of households in 2020, all population figures are estimates.

Population growth is a contentious issue in Clark County. The Comprehensive Growth Management Plan update covers the 20-year period ending in 2035, when the state Office of Financial Management projects the population to be 562,207. On Thursday, the Growth Management Hearings Board will issue a ruling on appeals to the comprehensive plan, which include arguments that the county low-balled population figures in crafting the plan.

It’s estimated that our neighbor to the east, Skamania County, grew by about 200 people, putting the population around 11,500. The Census Bureau reported there were more deaths than births in Skamania, so that growth is entirely from people moving there. Cowlitz County grew by less than 2,000 and has an estimated 105,160 residents.

The overall Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore., metropolitan area’s population was 2,424,955 in 2016, an increase of 1.68 percent from the year prior. Seven counties comprise the metro area. Although the most populated county, Multnomah, grew by more than 10,000 people, its growth rate was 1.35 percent.

Surrounding suburbs experienced more rapid growth. Oregon’s Washington and Clackamas counties grew by more than 1.7 percent while Columbia and Yamhill grew by more than 2.4 percent.

Likewise, King County may be the state’s population powerhouse — having gained nearly 26,000 residents between 2015 and 2016 — but its growth rate is slower than the counties surrounding it. King County grew by 1.69 percent, while Pierce, Thurston and Snohomish counties all grew by more than 2 percent during that one-year period.

Overall, Washington has an estimated 7.29 million residents. The population increased 8 percent between 2010 and 2016, an estimated gain of 544,774 people.

That may seem like a lot of growth considering that the entire population of Southwest Washington is less than 700,000. The Pacific Northwest’s major urban hubs, however, aren’t growing as quickly as other places around the U.S. People are flocking to areas such as Austin, Texas, Orlando, Fla., and Las Vegas. The Southwest and Southeast in general are experiencing rapid growth. On the other hand, counties surrounding major cities such as Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cleveland are losing residents.