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Slight weakening not expected to hinder powerful Hurricane Irma

By Jenny Staletovich, Miami Herald
Published: September 1, 2017, 10:03am

MIAMI — Irma may weaken before she gets stronger.

Overnight, dry air and moderate water temperatures slowed the storm’s rapid intensification from Wednesday slightly. An eyewall replacement early Friday also led the storm to drop to a Category 2. In their 11 a.m. EDT advisory Friday, forecasters noted that increasing wind sheer over the eastern Atlantic could cause the storm’s intensity to waver over the coming days.

However, Irma will likely begin regaining strength after the weekend as it crosses warmer seas, with sustained winds of 125 mph possible, they said.

Over the next five days, the storm is expected to continue on a west, northwesterly track that should bring it near the Leeward Islands next week. Impacts to Florida, and the U.S. coast, are less certain.

A high pressure ridge has continued to build and is likely to start turning the storm to the west later Friday, forecasters said. An upper level low is also expected to slide to the south, on the east side of the high, which will determine just how far south Irma makes it before turning to the northwest early next week. Because the storm is so tall, forecasters suspect it will react to the northerly flow and track more to the south.

But 10 days out is still a long time to predict tracks with any certainty, said former hurricane center director Rick Knabb, now a hurricane expert at the Weather Channel.

“You’re going to see model run after model run changing from cycle to cycle, and some are going to imply greater threats to Florida,” he said. “We all have a tendency, and I do it too, to try to figure out which one is right. But the only thing we can do at 10 days is realize it’s the peak of the hurricane season and do the thing we’re supposed to do: find out if you’re in an evacuation zone and where you would go.”

What’s worrisome is the ridge, Knabb said. Forecasters are not seeing any significant change that would guarantee a turn to the north, which can happen with storms so far away.

Eyewall replacements, which frequently occur in major storms, can also widen its reach, he said. And while they can slow wind speed initially, given enough time, new eyes can contract and allow intensity to rebuild.

“It’s going to be a long annoying wait to see how things play out,” he said. “Hopefully that trough over the east coast in a week or so will be our friend.”

Forecasters are also keeping an eye on a new wave rolling of the African coast and are giving the system a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next five days.

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