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How to predict the winner of ‘Dancing With the Stars’

By Emily Yahr, The Washington Post
Published: March 11, 2016, 6:04am

Come on, ABC, give us a challenge! After looking at the list of contestants for the 22nd season of “Dancing With the Stars” revealed Tuesday on “Good Morning America,” the eventual winner seems obvious. Here’s everyone competing:

• Jodie Sweetin, actress.

• Mischa Barton, actress.

• Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver.

• Paige VanZant, UFC fighter.

• Wanya Morris, Boyz II Men singer.

• Von Miller, Denver Broncos linebacker.

• Geraldo Rivera, Fox News contributor.

• Marla Maples, actress, Donald Trump’s ex-wife.

• Ginger Zee, “Good Morning America” weather anchor.

• Kim Fields, actress.

• Nyle DiMarco, “America’s Next Top Model” winner.

• Doug Flutie, former NFL quarterback.

Let’s break this down. The most significant fact is, for the first time ever on the show, three NFL players will compete against each other. Athletes usually go far on “DWTS” because they’re used to grueling physical training. (It may be a ballroom dance competition, but at least one contestant walks away each season with a fairly serious injury.) NFL players in particular — with a couple of exceptions — have been very successful:

Taking that into account, it’s fair to say that Antonio Brown, Von Miller or Doug Flutie are very likely to win. However, Flutie is 53 years old, while Brown and Miller are 27 and 26, respectively. Older contestants typically get voted off rather early — the nostalgia is exciting until it isn’t anymore.

Then you’ve got Miller and Brown, who we’re calling now as front-runners. Miller is coming off a Super Bowl win (specifically as MVP), so he has momentum.

Finally, there’s the viewers, whose votes are combined with judges’ scores. Was wide receiver Donald Driver really the best dancer in Season 14? Probably not, but the Green Bay Packers have a frighteningly passionate fan base. Same goes for the Steelers, with fans all across the country. That could easily help Brown edge out Miller, which is why he’s our pick for most probable winner. (Disclaimer: The author is one of those Steelers fans.)

The final element: the ability to, you know, dance. Sometimes that doesn’t play as critical a role as some might think (personality counts for a lot on this show). And when it comes to dancing skills, Brown and Miller are fairly matched on the field, so this may shape up to be one of the closest competitions in years.

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