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U.N.-led talks on Syria still sputter

A lot has changed, but breakthroughs not expected soon

By PHILIP ISSA and JAMEY KEATEN, Associated Press
Published: November 29, 2017, 5:24pm
4 Photos
FILE - This Friday, May 19, 2017 file photo, members of the Syrian government delegation and Syrian chief negotiator and Ambassador of the Permanent Representative Mission of Syria to the United Nations Bashar al-Ja’afari, center, attend a meeting with UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura during peace talks at the European headquarters of the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland. Much has changed since Syria’s warring sides held the last round of UN-brokered talks in Geneva in the summer: The U.N. is sidestepping the divisive question of President Bashar Assad’s future, the Islamic State group has been defeated in all its strongholds, and Russia, Iran, Turkey and the U.S. have engaged in high level diplomacy that has largely frozen the lines of conflict.
FILE - This Friday, May 19, 2017 file photo, members of the Syrian government delegation and Syrian chief negotiator and Ambassador of the Permanent Representative Mission of Syria to the United Nations Bashar al-Ja’afari, center, attend a meeting with UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura during peace talks at the European headquarters of the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland. Much has changed since Syria’s warring sides held the last round of UN-brokered talks in Geneva in the summer: The U.N. is sidestepping the divisive question of President Bashar Assad’s future, the Islamic State group has been defeated in all its strongholds, and Russia, Iran, Turkey and the U.S. have engaged in high level diplomacy that has largely frozen the lines of conflict. (Fabrice Coffrini/Pool Photo via AP, File) Photo Gallery

BEIRUT — Much has changed since Syria’s warring sides met for the last round of U.N.-brokered talks in Geneva last summer.

The Islamic State group has been defeated in all its major strongholds, rebels seeking to topple President Bashar Assad have been significantly weakened and Russia, Iran, Turkey and the U.S. have engaged in high level diplomacy that has largely frozen the lines of conflict.

Most significantly, the U.N. is sidestepping for now the divisive issue of Assad’s future in a post-war Syria, a question that has derailed all previous attempts to end the country’s devastating war.

In this light, diplomats are hoping that at last the parties in Syria may be ready to make some forward progress in talks that formally got under way with the arrival of the government delegation on Wednesday. There is little optimism, however, that the current round would achieve any significant breakthroughs.

Still, this round of talks stands out from the previous seven.

Expectations

The question of Assad’s future looms over Syria, but it has been a non-starter for talks in Geneva. This time, U.N.’s Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura, is trying to sidestep the issue and has asked the two sides to focus on constitutional reform and elections, instead.

Considering Geneva’s past record for deadlock, a real dialogue between the two sides on these two matters would represent a “significant step forward,” according to a European diplomat close to the negotiations.

“That is clearly a long way from any assurance that Assad is about to go, but I think we need baby steps,” said the diplomat, who was not authorized to speak on the record about the negotiations.

In fact, an even more modest target of getting the two sides to agree to speak about these issues could work to advance the diplomatic process, said a Syrian intermediary close to the opposition. An agenda for further discussion can then be taken to Sochi, Russia, where President Vladimir Putin says he wants to assemble a “Syrian People’s Congress” to hash out a peace for Syria. Russia’s Foreign Ministry said it could convene a conference in January or February.

Assad’s government prefers to negotiate in Sochi; Russia’s military and diplomatic support for Assad has remained unshakeable through seven years of war. The opposition says they do not see the purpose of opening a Sochi track when the U.N. is sponsoring talks in Geneva.

Opposition

The opposition’s delegation was expanded last week under Saudi Arabian auspices to include factions seen by Damascus and its backers as more acceptable for negotiations, including the “Moscow group,” which has resisted calls for Assad’s departure.

This makes it the first time that the notoriously fragmented opposition attends talks with one unified delegation.

Opposition delegation head Nasr Hariri said the reformulation removed any excuse for Syria’s government and its chief diplomatic backer, Russia, to avoid the U.N. talks.

The new opposition delegation has called for direct talks with the government delegation, saying they were ready to engage in talks ‘without preconditions,” but at the same time says its goal remains to push Assad aside.

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