Will: Will N.J. elect a Republican to the Senate?

“Over a six-year period,” Menendez “knowingly and repeatedly accepted gifts of significant value” from a friend (an ophthalmologist who, the letter did not say, is currently appealing a 17-year sentence for $73 million of fraudulent Medicare billings). The gifts included air travel on private and commercial flights, a luxury hotel stay in Paris (the committee’s letter is demurely silent about Menendez’s accompanying girlfriend) and 19 visits to a Dominican Republic villa. He neither publicly reported, nor received written permission for, these gifts. In addition, the committee said, he improperly intervened with federal agencies with “persistent advocacy” for his friend’s business interests.

Escapes conviction

New Jersey Democrats powered Menendez to a 19-point victory six years ago. In last month’s primary, however, his opponent won 37.8 percent of the vote while spending next to nothing. In October, he was underwater, 19-59, in a poll about whether he deserves re-election. Today, polls show Menendez with small single-digit leads, but Hugin’s brass-knuckle ads are saying things like this: “(President) Obama’s Justice Department said (Menendez) belongs in jail.” The department brought a 14-count felony corruption indictment, which resulted in a nearly three-month trial that did not convict Menendez.

Hugin might be hindered by the Republican tax cut, which limited the deductibility on federal income taxes of state and local tax payments. The 10 percent of N.J. voters affected are affected substantially because property taxes are high.

This election will test whether voters think that being a luridly indiscreet senator is less objectionable than Hugin’s guilt of association with the pharmaceutical industry whose products help to give people sufficient longevity and vitality to nurse grievances against the products’ prices.