Economists say the country is close to full employment, but pay gains for American workers have been flat since 2015. Even last week’s uptick in wage growth risks being wiped out by inflation.
So why does the Conference Board’s monthly survey show that Americans feel more hopeful about future pay raises than they have since the century began?
Answers are elusive. Maybe they anticipate companies will finally include them in the bounty of record corporate profits. Perhaps the 3.9 percent unemployment rate has them feeling good about the economy in general, so they believe higher pay is only a matter of time. Or maybe it’s the data.
The jobless rate has been at or below 5 percent for 36 straight months. But inflation-adjusted wage growth is at an ebb, too — in fact it was negative on a year-over-year basis in July for the first time since January 2017.
Wage-growth numbers have what’s called a composition bias, according to Marta Lachowska, an economist at the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research in Kalamazoo, Mich. That means “lots of people are coming off the sidelines and getting hired at relatively low wages,” which could be dragging down statistics.
To correct for this, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco has adjusted wage-growth figures to account for new and returning workers. This resulted in a gain of as much as 2 percentage points to median weekly earnings growth.
Labor flows and a lower prime-age employment ratio — meaning the percentage of 25- to 54-year-olds who have jobs — provide support for the argument.
“Seven in 10 people who get jobs weren’t actively looking,” said Elise Gould, a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, a Washington think tank. “They’re coming from outside the labor force.”
The prime-age employment ratio bottomed out at 78.6 percent in 2003. The Great Recession dragged it down to 74.8 percent, and it didn’t surpass 78.6 percent until September 2017. It’s currently at 79.5 percent.
