Gordon Brooks, assistant chief of Clark County Fire District 10, has been monitoring long-term fire forecasts for nearly 31 years. A four-month projection released earlier this month was unlike any other he has seen.
The projection from the National Interagency Fire Center, released April 1, revealed a higher-than-normal potential for large wildland fires in spring and early summer in Western Oregon and Washington, including Clark County. Other than a few scattered areas of the western United States, the rest of the country is either at normal or below-average risk of costly wildfires.
Local fire agencies and the state have been coordinating in preparation for the potentially active, early start to fire season, which typically peaks in August and September.
“It doesn’t look like it’s going to be a great year for the west side (of Washington),” said Janet Pearce, spokeswoman for the Department of Natural Resources. “It’s going to be a challenge, I’m sure, but we’re prepared.”
Last year, 40 percent of fires in Washington came in the western portion of the state, which is unusually high, Pearce said. In total, there were more than 1,850 blazes in Washington, the most in state history. Clark County Fire District 3 responded to 55 local wildfires, while District 10 responded to 21.
This year, a combination of relatively dry conditions and rapid snow melt is concerning to fire officials west of the Cascade Mountains, a region not commonly associated with many wildland fires. So far this year, 44 fires in Southwest Washington have burned roughly 320 acres, according to a county news release issued Friday.
East winds caused many of the fires as property owners used clear weather to burn debris, Pearce said.
“It was just getting out of hand because of that weather anomaly,” Pearce said.
The Portland metro area has seen nearly 3 inches of rain in April, according to the National Weather Service. While that has delayed potential wildfires in recent weeks, the extra rain may also mean more vegetation — and fire fuel.
“As soon as it stops raining, we’re going to be back into the season pretty quickly,” Brooks said. “It won’t take much to be out of the ordinary.”
Earlier this month, fire marshals from Clark County met with the Department of Natural Resources to discuss the uneasy outlook. The state held more interagency training and has positioned a helicopter that can respond to a fire in Clark County within 15 minutes.
“That way, you’re familiar with your buddy who’s working with you on the (fire) line or down the line,” Pearce said.
Most concerning to fire officials are homes in rural areas.
“It’s just more likely to be in areas where we have more vegetation, less access, fewer people around to report them quickly,” Brooks said.
While the next forecast on May 1 will likely offer a projection that is closer to normal for next month, District 10 is prepared to respond to wildfires around the region beginning June 1, Brooks said.
“This outlook has us planning a little earlier this year,” he said.
Brooks advised those who wish to burn debris on their property to check weather forecasts and not leave burn piles unsupervised. All but two of the wildfires in Southwest Washington earlier this year were caused by debris burning, according to the county.
“People, with a little bit of forethought, can prevent these types of things,” Brooks said.
The county typically imposes burn bans from July 15 through Sept. 30. Expect an earlier prohibition this year.
“If you plan to obtain a burning permit to dispose of dead vegetation, please do it soon,” Clark County Fire Marshal Jon Dunaway said in a news release. “Once a ban is in place, the only other option will be to take this material to a wood recycling business.”
Permit information can be found on the county’s website.
Wildfire prediction is imperfect, and the next few months could be far more or less intense than predicted. While this season may be worse than usual, Brooks doesn’t expect any major devastation locally.
“Frankly, I don’t expect there to be any large fires in the county this year,” Brooks said. “On the other hand, it’s kind of foolish of me to say that because it could jump up and bite me in the nose.”
Brooks has a saying when people ask exactly how intense a particular season might be: “Ask me in November.”
