The Trump administration’s new $16 billion round of trade-war aid for farmers will dramatically shift bailout money toward corn and cotton growers, according to an analysis by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s former chief economist.
The department didn’t provide details of compensation for individual commodities — which some grower groups criticized as inequitable last year — when it announced this year’s trade assistance plan last week.
Instead, the USDA released payment rates for each U.S. county, with all farmers in a county to receive the same rate per acre planted with an eligible crop. The department didn’t disclose its assessments of trade damage each commodity sustained from the tariff wars or other details of how the local rates were determined.
Joseph Glauber, the department’s former chief economist, was able to estimate payment rates for each commodity by comparing trade aid paid out in 2018 with what would have been paid out had the 2019 county payment rates been in effect. He used county-level planting data available by crop for 2018 to develop the simulation.