The Clark County housing market cooled off in December, a quieter ending note for what was nonetheless a very strong year overall. The latest data from the Regional Multiple Listing Service shows a decline in new sales from November, but local real estate agent Mike Lamb says the market is still well-positioned for a strong 2019, if the right conditions are met.
“In retrospect, you might say 2018 was a play with two very different acts,” Lamb wrote in his monthly report. “In the first act, there was the frenetic, go-go pace of the year until about August. Then, in the second act, the pace slowed dramatically.”
Pending sales dropped 14.4 percent, from 564 in November to 483 in December. New listings fell by 45.9 percent, dropping from 728 in November to 394 in December. Closed sales also dropped by 13.1 percent.
A decrease in listings and sales is generally considered normal in December due to the holiday season, but December 2018 also saw cooling on a year-over-year basis; pending sales dropped by 2.4 percent compared to December 2017, new listings dropped by 4.4 percent and closed sales dropped by 17.3 percent.
According to Lamb, the past few Decembers have seen small declines from December 2015, which was the recent high point. New pending sales activity in December 2018 was still better than in any other December between 2005 and 2015, Lamb noted in his own monthly report.
The 17.3 percent drop in closed sales stands out a bit more, Lamb said, although it’s still better than any December between 2005 and 2015. Similarly, he said, the overall sales number of 9,325 for 2018 represents a decrease over the past few years, but is still better than any year in the decade prior to the 2015 high point.
“It is significant that despite that slower tempo in the last part of the year, 2018 was still one of the better years this market has seen,” he wrote.
Measured pace
Clark County’s inventory in months — a measurement of the number of months it would take to clear the entire current inventory of available properties — remained unchanged in December, at 2.9. The market first hit the 2.9 mark — the high point for 2016-2018 — in September and dropped to 2.7 in October before climbing back to 2.9 in November.
Average and median sale prices both rose in December, with the average sale price now sitting at $388,600 and the median price now at $350,000. Both figures also rose between 4.5 and 5 percent over the average and median prices in December 2017.
Local ReMax managing broker Terry Wollam said he expected to see those numbers continue to rise in 2019, but at a more measured pace due to expected increases in Clark County’s housing inventory.
“They’re still going to appreciate, but at a more sustainable rate,” he said. “Something closer to 3-5 percent, as we continue to see inventory levels slightly uptick.”
Looking at the year 2018 overall, the average home price in Clark County was $393,000, an increase of 8.2 percent compared to the $363,200 average price in 2017. The 2018 median sale price of $355,000 represents an 8.9 percent increase over the 2017 median price of $326,000.
Clark County saw 11,364 new listings in 2018, a 5.4 percent increase over 2017, but that was coupled with a 2.7 percent decrease in both closed and pending sales.
In his report, Lamb suggests that the when taken as a whole, the 2018 data should serve to push back against fears of a large impending decrease in the market.
“In fact, if anything, new sales activity suggests we may be starting the new year with stronger new sales activity than is typical,” he wrote. “That is good news, but in order to sustain that activity for very long we need more good listings.”
Wollam predicted that 2019 would see only a minor slowdown in sales, and that the next two years will continue a trend of rising inventory levels that began in 2018. But in the short term, he said, sales are likely to tick upward for the next several months — the February, March and April period is usually one of the best of the year.
“That’s really going to give us a strong verdict as to how this year will go,” he said.
