NEW YORK — With the official start of the holiday shopping season nearly upon us, the nation’s retailers are gearing up for what should be another brutally competitive shopping period.
The good news? Many retail CEOs say the U.S. consumer is financially healthy given the economy remains strong and the unemployment rate is near a 50-year low. But keeping up with shoppers’ behavior has been challenging for retailers, whether it’s the yearslong shift to shopping online or the more recent desire to rent or buy second-hand clothes and other items. Retailers also face increasing pressure from online leader Amazon, which has been raising the stakes in speedier shipping.
Here are some key trends and milestones to watch:
The forecasts
The National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, forecasts that holiday sales will rise between 3.8 percent and 4.2 percent even as the ongoing U.S.-China trade war creates some uncertainty around pricing and supplies. Sales growth at the top of that range would double the disappointing 2.1 percent growth seen in November and December of 2018, which fell well short of the group’s prediction of 4.3 percent and 4.8 percent. Last year’s holiday sales were hurt by turmoil over President Donald Trump’s trade policy regarding China and a delay in data collection by nearly a month that NRF said made the data slightly less reliable. The group expects online and other nonstore sales, which are included in the total, to increase between 11 percent and 14 percent, for the holiday 2019 period. The NRF forecast, which considers economic indicators such as consumer credit, disposable personal income and monthly retail sales, excludes sales from autos, gas, and restaurants. Other groups are more optimistic: Deloitte expects holiday retail sales to rise 4.5 percent to 5 percent, and AlixPartners predicts growth of 4.4 percent to 5.3 percent.
What makes this holiday season different?
For one, this holiday season is the shortest since 2013 and six days shorter than the 2018 season because Thanksgiving falls on Nov. 28. Retailers say such a compressed season will put more pressure on them to make every day count. Walmart and others are trying to get into the minds of shoppers sooner, with earlier deals and advertising. This season is also different because more retailers like Walmart and Amazon are offering next-day delivery, raising the pressure for them to satisfy shoppers without any glitches. Amazon has said that more than 10 million items now qualify for next-day delivery for its Prime members, who pay $119 a year.