The following is presented as part of The Columbian’s Opinion content, which offers a point of view in order to provoke thought and debate of civic issues. Opinions represent the viewpoint of the author. Unsigned editorials represent the consensus opinion of The Columbian’s editorial board, which operates independently of the news department.
As bad as it has been in politics for Republicans around here lately — and it’s been almost historically bad — the next phase has officially begun.
Which is that it’s getting worse.
“The gap right now between the parties is the largest we’ve ever recorded,” pollster Stuart Elway said. “It’s 20 points — that’s a huge number for Washington state.”
The dean of the state’s political pollsters, Elway has been measuring voter sentiment in our state for more than four decades. For him to say the gap is the largest it’s ever been here, well, it’s really saying something.
His most recent survey, conducted with local news website Crosscut, found that 41 percent of state voters now identify as Democrat. That’s high, but not a record (46 percent identified as D in the heady Obama days of 2008).
What’s most unusual is how much Republican affiliation has plummeted. Twenty years ago it was routinely 35 percent (the whole state was about one-third D, one-third R and one-third independent). In 2012, Republicans were 30 percent and by 2016, after you-know-who came on the scene, it had dropped to 25 percent.
Now it’s just 21 percent. The gap between the parties is now four points wider than it was in the fall of 2018 — when Democrats flipped a congressional seat, three state Senate seats and seven state House seats, to solidify one-party control.
“It could get worse, too,” Elway said. “With Trump at the top of the ticket, I don’t know how they are even going to field a team in the next election.”
The Trump effect has been especially brutal for the GOP locally. Voters here have long had liberal or libertarian views on social issues and immigration, so Trump’s at odds with that. But Washington also is the most trade-dependent state in the nation. So unlike previous Republican presidents, Trump’s at odds with that, too.
Nothing to worry about
What’s most baffling is that the Republican Party isn’t adapting. It’s doubling down with more of the same.
The party’s first real challenger for the statewide offices is state Sen. Phil Fortunato, R-Auburn, who just announced a run for governor. What’s he known for? Wearing his side arm at gun rallies in Olympia. Also for being so sick of Seattle that he proposed splitting the city off from the rest of King County.
This obsession Republicans have with running against Seattle is as enduring as it is politically dense. Yes, we’re jammed with cranes, jobs, millionaires, socialists, behemoth corporations and the homeless. But pro-tip, GOP: None of that is happening because people hate it here. “The most popular city in America, it really sucks” is not a coherent political message. Think about it.
Or don’t. But recently I was lamenting how the Democrats have become like the Politburo, flexing their one-party control by all but assigning who gets which elected office. Well, this column suggests why that is. It’s because they have nothing, at all, to worry about.
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