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Revised numbers show Clark County’s job losses not as bad as thought

Tax returns find 11,000 fewer posts, rather than 15,500

By Will Campbell, Columbian Associate Editor
Published: November 24, 2020, 5:41pm

Clark County’s job losses incurred during the pandemic haven’t been as bad as previously thought, according to the Washington State Employment Security Department.

Revised statistics, taken from tax returns, showed that year-over-year job losses in September were about 11,000 in the county, down from the 15,500 of former estimates, according to Scott Bailey, regional economist for Southwest Washington.

“The good news is, the employment was revised upwards going back through April, May and June,” he said. “Job losses weren’t as bad as estimated.”

Seasonally adjusted employment for October also increased by 200 jobs, and unadjusted, the county gained 500 for a total of 160,900 jobs.

The trends show Clark County in line with the Portland metro area, the state of Washington and the nation.

The adjusted job count is due to monthly estimates taken by a sample of employers, Bailey said. But the tax returns show a more realistic number because they’re sourced from every Clark County employer.

“It’s still bad,” Bailey said. “It’s just not as bad.”

Construction, manufacturing, trade, transportation, utilities, education and health services all adjusted upward during the pandemic. Information services, finance, leisure, hospitality, other services and government did not change much, he said.

Financial services grow

Only one industry has seen increased jobs since the pandemic began: financial services, which includes investment firms and credit unions. The industry gained about 200 jobs, a 3 percent increase, and payroll went from $116 million in the second quarter of last year to $137 million in this year’s second quarter.

Manufacturing was down 300 jobs last month, while construction lost 500 jobs, down 3.7 percent. Other services, including hair salons, repair services and some nonprofits, were down 11 percent in job count.

The county’s unemployment rate, which is taken from a national model and survey, thus reducing its accuracy, was reported as 6.5 percent, which Bailey said was optimistic.

The country’s unemployment dropped from 7.9 percent to 6.8 percent from September to October, and the state’s rate fell from 8.3 percent to 6 percent.

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