SAN LEANDRO, Calif. — President Joe Biden has been beset by public health, military and climate crises in the past month. Not much time has been left to help fellow Democrat and California Gov. Gavin Newsom fight off an attempt to boot him from office.
With less than a week to spare, the White House is diving into the California gubernatorial recall election, coming to Newsom’s aid with visits from Vice President Kamala Harris and then Biden himself to try to alleviate lingering concerns about Democratic turnout in the unusual September vote.
Harris arrived back in her home state to campaign with Newsom on Wednesday after a previously planned visit was nixed due to the chaos surrounding the Afghanistan withdrawal. Biden is expected to visit California just ahead of Tuesday’s election.
For Biden, it’s a chance to flex his political muscle in a state where he and Harris remain popular. The outcome also will provide a test of Biden’s clout after a difficult August and in advance of the 2022 midterms, when control of Congress and more than half of the nation’s governorships are up for grabs.
Harris and Biden are hoping to help bolster Newsom’s chance to survive an unpredictable recall effort in a state that remains key to advancing Biden’s agenda.
“It’s simply too big a state to lose an election in,” said Joel Benenson, a pollster for former President Barack Obama’s campaigns. “You’ve got more to risk by not showing up than by showing up.”
Benenson noted that beyond the political implications for the Democratic Party of losing a gubernatorial seat, the outcome of the recall could have an effect on the makeup of the Senate if California Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s seat opens up before her term ends in 2024 — leaving her replacement to be appointed by the governor.
The leading Republican in the race and the candidate Newsom has identified as his biggest threat — conservative talk radio host Larry Elder — told reporters in Los Angeles that Harris and Biden were trying to distract attention from Newsom’s record on widespread homelessness, rising crime, and long-running school and business closures during the coronavirus pandemic.
“They are so afraid they want to federalize this election. This is about California,” said Elder, who could become the state’s first Black governor. “This federal firepower is not going to help him.”
Elder spoke briefly with reporters after voting at an election center and before starting a statewide bus tour. Asked if he had concerns about the integrity of the election — all of the state’s 22 million voters received a mail-in ballot — he said, “There might very well be shenanigans, as there were in the 2020 election,” referring to former President Donald Trump’s unsupported claims of fraud in his loss to Biden.
A survey from the Public Policy Institute of California, conducted in late August and released last week, showed more likely voters would vote no than yes on removing Newsom, 58 percent to 39 percent. Among all likely voters, whether they would keep Newsom or not, about half say they do not have a preference on a replacement candidate or do not know their preference. Elder finished first by a wide margin among those who said they supported a replacement candidate.
The election has two questions: first, whether voters believe the governor should be recalled, and then, who should replace him. Voters will choose from a list of 46 replacement candidates — many of them unknown. With so many candidates dividing those ballots, if the recall effort succeeds, it’s possible a candidate could win with 25 percent or less of the vote.
The main concern for Newsom remains getting Democratic base voters engaged and aware that they need to turn out for an unusually timed election, according to Kyle Kondick, a nonpartisan political analyst at the University of Virginia.
“One way to do that is to bring in high-profile surrogates who will get a lot of news coverage and will help spread the word about the fact that the recall is happening,” Kondick said.
