Who makes the November ballot in open battleground seats?
Arizona’s 6th District: Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick ‘s decision to retire rather than seek election in a reconfigured Tucson-based district has given Republicans a prime pickup opportunity. President Joe Biden would have carried the new district by just 395 votes, according to Arizona Public Media. Juan Ciscomani is the GOP front-runner in the race, which is rated Tilt Republican by Inside Elections. But the Congressional Leadership Fund recently put in $1 million to support Ciscomani, a former aide to Gov. Doug Ducey, ahead of the primary. Kathleen Winn, a former local TV reporter, is the only other candidate in the field to have raised even $100,000 (compared to Ciscomani’s $1.7 million), but Winn has the endorsement of Trump-backed gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake. On the Democratic side, Kirsten Engel and Daniel Hernandez have each raised more than $1 million. Engel is a former state senator who has the endorsement of EMILY’s List, while Hernandez is a state representative perhaps best known nationally because he was an intern for then-Rep. Gabby Giffords who was present when she was shot in 2011.
Michigan’s 10th District: Army veteran John James, who ran for Senate in 2018 and 2020, is expected to be the Republican nominee in Michigan’s open 10th District. In the primary, he faces Tony Marcinkewciz. James was named to the National Republican Congressional Committee’s “Young Gun” program for promising candidates and had $2.5 million in his campaign account as of July 13. He’s also had $124,000 in outside support from Americans for Prosperity Action and Elbert Guillory’s America, a PAC tied to former Louisiana state Sen. Elbert Guillory. The five-way Democratic primary includes former Macomb County Circuit Judge Carl Marlinga, lawyer Huwaida Arraf, political newcomer Rhonda Powell, Warren City Council Angela Rogensues and former state Rep. Henry Yanez. Inside Elections rates the race as Tilt Republican.
Who’s practically Congress-bound after winning these open-seat primaries?
Missouri’s 4th District: GOP Rep. Vicky Hartzler ‘s pursuit of retiring GOP Sen. Roy Blunt ‘s seat led to a crowded primary in the west-central part of the state. Former Boone County Clerk Taylor Burks, a Navy veteran, is the top fundraiser, with $851,000, including $94,000 he loaned or donated to his campaign. The second-place fundraiser, former Fox 4 anchor Mark Alford, pulled in $600,000 and had an additional $570,000 in outside support, most of it from the cryptocurrency-linked American Dream Federal Action PAC. But that was offset by $693,000 in opposition spending from the School Freedom Fund, an offshoot of the anti-tax Club for Growth, which spent $614,000 supporting state Sen. Richard Brattin, who was endorsed by the influential anti-abortion group Missouri Right to Life. Brattin, whose $301,000 in receipts included a $30,000 candidate loan, also had to contend with a combined $769,000 in opposition spending from outside groups, most of it from a group formed in July called the Conservative Americans PAC, which also invested in the 7th District race. Cattle farmer Kalena Bruce, whose $383,000 in receipts included a $150,000 candidate loan, has an endorsement from the influential Missouri Farm Bureau, which spent $9,000 supporting her campaign. Former St. Louis Blues hockey player Jim Campbell loaned his campaign more than $1 million, but he has received less than $10,000 in donations and hasn’t appeared at any forums featuring the top contenders. Democrat Jack Truman is uncontested in his party’s primary. The race in November is rated Solid Republican.
Missouri’s 7th District: Rep. Billy Long ‘s decision to run for Senate also drew a crowd seeking to replace him. Jay Wasson and Eric Burlison — a former and current state senator, respectively — have dominated the eight-way race in fundraising, media interest and outside support. Both are promoting themselves as devotees of Trump, with Wasson touting his local support, while Burlison has more backing from national Republicans. Wasson’s $1.3 million in receipts, which includes a $750,000 candidate loan, is nearly double what Burlison has raised. But Burlison has benefited from $573,000 in outside support from the Club for Growth and PACs associated with the far-right House Freedom Fund, while Wasson has had $1.1 million in outside spending against him — most of it from the Club for Growth. State Sen. Mike Moon, who raised $157,000, faced $273,000 in spending against him by a group called Conservative Americans PAC, which also spent $672,000 opposing Burlison. Three candidates are seeking the Democratic nomination, with the top fundraiser taking in less than $2,100. The race in November is rated Solid Republican.