American Airlines cut 31,000 flights from its November schedule over the last month, a major reduction that is becoming part of the unpredictability of flying in the COVID-recovery environment across the industry.
Fort Worth-based American, which has operated more flights than any other carrier since 2020, trimmed 16.6% of its November schedule on routes across the country and cut about 13,000 more flights in September and October, according to flight schedule data company Cirium.
That follows a similar pattern by Delta and United, which have made major schedule cuts for November and December. Atlanta-based Delta cut 11,000 flights for the month of November during the last month, about 7.8% of its Thanksgiving month flights, according to Dallas-based Airline Data Inc. Chicago-based United was slightly ahead in adjusting its schedule, reducing flights in December by almost 11,000 flights, too — almost 8% of its planned schedule.
“The New World realization is that they just don’t have as many pilots and crew members as they hoped they would,” said Jeff Pelletier, an airline network analyst with Airline Data Inc. “It’s taken them a few months to right the ship and realize what they can handle.”
That means passengers will continue to pay high prices for tickets heading into the holiday rush in November and December, Pelletier said.
American Airlines said the schedule adjustments are routine. American, United and Delta all publish schedules almost a year in advance, setting expectations for flying based on demand and capacity.
Airlines correctly predicted that demand would be high. Airlines saw their biggest crowds since 2019 this summer, even though there were about 10% fewer flights. Ticket prices were as much as 30% higher than in 2019, too, meaning that even more people would have flown if they could.
What airlines didn’t predict was that they wouldn’t be able to put as many planes in the air.
American, Southwest and others initially predicted that capacity, or the number of flights and passengers it could serve, would be roughly in line with 2019. In late July, American said its full-year estimates for capacity would be down 7.5% to 9.5%.
“These adjustments are in line with our approach to our network and schedule planning throughout the year,” American Airlines spokesman Matt Miller said. “Preliminary schedules are published 331 days in advance and then adjustments are made closer in based on the schedule we intend to operate.”
American makes adjustments about 100 days in advance based on whatever new information it has, which is why the schedule adjustments for November are just coming in. A month ago, American trimmed 34,000 flights from its October schedule, which executives talked about as an attempt to “ensure operational reliability” during its second-quarter earnings announcement.
For customers, it could mean that some will see flight adjustments, changed connections or itineraries moving from nonstop flights to ones with one or two connections.
Dallas-based Southwest Airlines makes schedules about 180 days out and operates a much more complicated schedule than its hub-and-spoke competitors, Pelletier said. That means it’s much more reluctant to make major changes, Pelletier said.
While some customers have picked out flights to work carefully around conflicts, passenger rights advocate William McGee said adjusting schedules now is far better than trying to put too many flights in the air and having to make last-minute cancellations.
“For consumers, the airlines need to adjust as soon as possible,” said McGee, a senior fellow for aviation at the American Economic Liberties Project. “The airlines have a much better sense of how their schedule looks than they did earlier this summer.”
Making schedule adjustments 90 to 120 days in advance gives customers enough time to cancel flights if needed and rebook tickets before paying the higher costs of last-minute tickets, McGee said.
“It would still be better if airlines didn’t schedule flights and take people’s money for flights they won’t be willing to operate,” McGee said. “But this is better than what we’ve seen.”
Airlines are dealing with a shortage of pilots due to a large number of pilots hitting the legally mandated retirement age of 65. Major airlines are hiring quickly from regional carriers, but that leaves holes in the regional carrier workforces. Regional carriers are responsible for about 43% of all flights, according to the Regional Airlines Association.
That shows in American’s schedule for November. About 20,000 of the 31,000 flight cuts were on regionally operated carriers and only about 11,000 on mainline American. American has parked about 100 regional jets due to the pilot shortage.
“I think it’s dependent on the supply chains, aircraft manufacturers and ultimately pilots on it to get all back in sync,” American Airlines CEO Robert Isom said in July. “From a regional perspective, it’s just going to take a little bit longer than that, maybe two or three years to get the supply chain for pilots back to where we need it to be.”
