For those concerned that the M1 decision will “expand” the war, here are reasons why Biden’s decision was the right one.
An unforgiving calendar
Time is not on Ukraine’s side, and a stalemate is untenable. While Putin’s military cannot defeat and occupy all of Ukraine, it can destroy the country’s cities and wreck the economy if the conflict drags on indefinitely. Despite the impact of the war on Russia’s future economy, Putin is willing to throw newly mobilized men into a meat grinder, and import drones and missiles from Iran and North Korea for a spring or summer offensive. Sufficient weapons, soonest, would enable Kyiv to hit the Russians hard before such an offensive — and before a new GOP House majority threatens to cut Ukraine aid.
The urgent need for tanks
Those heavy battlefield tanks are needed now so Ukraine can mount a counteroffensive against dug-in Russian positions in the east and south of the country. If the nimble Ukrainians can break through Russian lines and cut off Russia’s land bridge to Crimea, they will take a huge step toward defeating Putin’s army.
Confirming NATO’s unity
It was important for Biden to call Scholz’s bluff and cement a stronger German role in supporting Ukraine. No doubt, Scholz’s true concern was the ambivalence of elements of his Social Democratic Party who yearn to maintain their diplomatic ties, trade relationships, and gas deals with Russia. Those days are over. The German leader’s dithering over the Leopards was creating the impression for Moscow that the NATO alliance could still be splintered over help to Ukraine. Biden was correct to haul Scholz back into the fold.
A small price to pay
It was worth promising M1 tanks to prod Scholz into action. True, the U.S. tank is much heavier than the Leopard, unsuited to Ukrainian roads and runs most often on hard-to-procure jet fuel rather than diesel. But the short-term objective here was to free the Leopards, since there are 2,000 of them in various European countries, meaning an allied coalition could send them fairly quickly to Ukraine.
Biden’s new clarity
The president’s willingness to deliver advanced U.S. tanks appears to indicate he’s dropped his ambivalence about a Ukrainian victory, along with the false distinction between “offensive” and “defensive” weapons. As he correctly said Wednesday, Ukraine’s battle is “not an offensive threat to Russia. If Russia returned to its territory, this war would be over today.” Having signed off on tanks, now is the moment for the White House and NATO allies to send the other key weapons Ukraine still needs — the air defenses and long-range munitions that can make the difference between stalemate and victory. Freeing the Leopards should be a giant step toward ending Putin’s war in 2023.